Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Tom Aspinall enters on a 3-fight win streak.
- Ciryl Gane enters on a 3-fight win streak.
- Tom Aspinall has 53pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Tom AspinallW3 streak
oldest →W
SUBvs Alexander Volkov · Mar 22L
KOvs Curtis Blaydes · Jul 22W
KOvs Marcin Tybura · Jul 23W
KOvs Sergei Pavlovich · Nov 23W
KOvs Curtis Blaydes · Jul 24 Ciryl GaneW3 streak
oldest →W
KOvs Tai Tuivasa · Sep 22L
SUBvs Jon Jones · Mar 23W
KOvs Serghei Spivac · Sep 23W
vs Alexander Volkov · Dec 24W
KOvs Alex Pereira · Jun 26 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Tom AspinallMetricCiryl Gane
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)+4.01Δ 1.05 — meaningful gap+2.96
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
Tom AspinallCiryl Gane
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Tom Aspinall(9 fights)Ciryl Gane(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red -15.3|Blue +15.3
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red +0.1|Blue -0.1
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red +0.1|Blue -0.1
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red +0.5|Blue -0.5
Layoff— Days since last fight (Red − Blue). Positive = Red has been away longer.
Red +133.0|Blue -133.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
Tom AspinallTargetCiryl Gane
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
Round 1Ciryl Gane edged it
Sig. strikes27
Takedowns0
Control0:00
30Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.
