Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Tim MeansL2 streak
oldest →L
SUBvs Alex Morono · May 23W
KOvs Andre Fialho · Sep 23L
KOvs Uros Medic · Apr 24L
SUBvs Court McGee · Oct 24 Nicolas Dalby
oldest →W
vs Muslim Salikhov · Jun 23W
KOvs Gabriel Bonfim · Nov 23L
vs Rinat Fakhretdinov · Jun 24L
KOvs Randy Brown · Apr 25W
vs Saygid Izagakhmaev · Nov 25 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Tim MeansMetricNicolas Dalby
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)+1.39Δ 1.02 — meaningful gap+0.37
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
Tim MeansNicolas Dalby
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Tim Means(10 fights)Nicolas Dalby(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red -16.5|Blue +16.5
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red +0.3|Blue -0.3
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red +1.0|Blue -1.0
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red -0.2|Blue +0.2
Layoff— Days since last fight (Red − Blue). Positive = Red has been away longer.
Red 0.0|Blue 0.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
Tim MeansTargetNicolas Dalby
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
Round 1Tim Means edged it
Sig. strikes15
Takedowns1
Control3:07
11Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:09Control
Round 2Tim Means edged it
Sig. strikes29
Takedowns0
Control1:45
24Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:17Control
Round 3Nicolas Dalby edged it
Sig. strikes9
Takedowns0
Control3:11
19Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
1:05Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.
