Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Sergei Pavlovich enters on a 3-fight win streak.
- Sergei Pavlovich is a KO finisher (78% of wins). Tom Aspinall has lost 50% of fights by KO.
- Tom Aspinall is a KO finisher (75% of wins). Sergei Pavlovich has lost 67% of fights by KO.
- Tom Aspinall has 25pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Stance matchup historically favors Sergei Pavlovich (53.5%).
- Sergei Pavlovich has a 15cm reach advantage.
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Sergei PavlovichW3 streak
oldest →W
KOvs Curtis Blaydes · Apr 23L
vs Alexander Volkov · Jun 24W
vs Jairzinho Rozenstruik · Feb 25W
vs Waldo Cortes Acosta · Aug 25W
KOvs Tallison Teixeira · May 26 Tom Aspinall
oldest →W
SUBvs Alexander Volkov · Mar 22L
KOvs Curtis Blaydes · Jul 22W
KOvs Marcin Tybura · Jul 23W
KOvs Curtis Blaydes · Jul 24 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Sergei PavlovichMetricTom Aspinall
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)+0.81Δ 3.20 — meaningful gap+4.01
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
Sergei PavlovichTom Aspinall
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Sergei Pavlovich(10 fights)Tom Aspinall(9 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red +22.3|Blue -22.3
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red +0.4|Blue -0.4
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red -0.0|Blue +0.0
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red -0.8|Blue +0.8
Layoff— Days since last fight (Red − Blue). Positive = Red has been away longer.
Red +91.0|Blue -91.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
Sergei PavlovichTargetTom Aspinall
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
Round 1Tom Aspinall edged it
Sig. strikes1
Takedowns0
Control0:00
Knockdowns0
10Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:02Control
1Knockdowns
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.
