Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Israel Adesanya enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
- Israel Adesanya has 16pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Stance matchup historically favors Israel Adesanya (54.1%).
- Israel Adesanya has a 23cm reach advantage.
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Kelvin Gastelum
oldest →L
SUBvs Sean Brady · Dec 23W
vs Daniel Rodriguez · Jun 24W
vs Dustin Stoltzfus · Sep 25L
SUBvs Vicente Luque · Apr 26 Israel AdesanyaL4 streak
oldest →W
KOvs Alex Pereira · Apr 23L
vs Sean Strickland · Sep 23L
SUBvs Dricus Du Plessis · Aug 24L
KOvs Nassourdine Imavov · Feb 25 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Kelvin GastelumMetricIsrael Adesanya
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)+0.13evenly matched on net striking+0.81
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
Kelvin GastelumIsrael Adesanya
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Kelvin Gastelum(10 fights)Israel Adesanya(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red +27.1|Blue -27.1
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red -0.3|Blue +0.3
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red -0.8|Blue +0.8
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red +0.3|Blue -0.3
Layoff— Days since last fight (Red − Blue). Positive = Red has been away longer.
Red +273.0|Blue -273.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
Kelvin GastelumTargetIsrael Adesanya
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
Round 1Kelvin Gastelum edged it
Sig. strikes12
Takedowns0
Control0:00
10Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 2Israel Adesanya edged it
Sig. strikes20
Takedowns0
Control0:00
Knockdowns0
29Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:07Control
1Knockdowns
Round 3Even round
Sig. strikes12
Takedowns1
Control0:09
16Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 4Kelvin Gastelum edged it
Sig. strikes32
Takedowns0
Control0:28
17Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 5Israel Adesanya edged it
Sig. strikes15
Takedowns0
Control0:44
Knockdowns0
37Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:35Control
3Knockdowns
