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Welterweight

3 Rounds

Jim Miller won · SUB R2

Elo1516

Elo1429

Jim MillervsDonald CerroneUFC Prediction Result

UFC 276: Adesanya vs. Cannonier · Saturday, July 2, 2022Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Jim Miller won

SUB · Round 2 · 1:32

Style matchupJim Miller: Submission grapplervsDonald Cerrone: Submission grappler

Submission battle — patience and grip-fighting decide it on the mat.

Model Prediction: Jim Miller wins(62.4%)

Actual result: Jim Miller wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Jim Miller at -190 American odds

+$53 profit

$153 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Donald Cerrone enters on a 5-fight losing streak.
Donald Cerrone has 26pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Jim Miller (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Jim Miller

Red Corner

Donald Cerrone

Blue Corner

-190

(66%)

Vegas Odds

+160

(38%)

1516

Elo

1429

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

5'8"

Height

6'1"

180.34 cm

Reach

185.42 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Jim Miller

oldest →

SUBvs Gabriel Benitez · Jan 24

vs King Green · Apr 24

SUBvs Damon Jackson · Nov 24

vs Chase Hooper · Apr 25

SUBvs Jared Gordon · May 26

latest

Donald CerroneL5 streak

oldest →

KOvs Tony Ferguson · Jun 19

KOvs Justin Gaethje · Sep 19

KOvs Conor McGregor · Jan 20

vs Anthony Pettis · May 20

KOvs Alex Morono · May 21

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Jim MillerMetricDonald Cerrone

2.92

Strikes / min

4.41

3.43

Strikes absorbed / min

4.48

56%

Strike defense

53%

1.49

TDs / 15 min

1.16

47%

Takedown defense

73%

1.70

Sub atts / 15 min

1.20

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.51evenly matched on net striking-0.07

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Jim MillerDonald Cerrone

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Jim Miller(10 fights)Donald Cerrone(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +87.5|Blue -87.5

Recent Form

Red +1.4|Blue -1.4

Striker Score

Red -1.1|Blue +1.1

Grappler Score

Red +0.4|Blue -0.4

Layoff

Red -287.0|Blue +287.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Jim MillerTargetDonald Cerrone

By target zone

57% acc · 67%

Head

60% acc · 57%

100% acc · 25%

Body

75% acc · 29%

100% acc · 8%

Leg

60% acc · 14%

By position

63% acc · 71%

Distance

64% acc · 100%

Clinch

78% acc · 29%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Jim Miller rounds

even

Donald Cerrone rounds

Round 1Jim Miller edged it

Sig. strikes21

Takedowns1

Control1:03

17Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:08Control

Round 2Even round

Sig. strikes3

Takedowns0

Control0:00

4Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:16Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

24 / 36

Sig Strikes

21 / 33

57%

Sig Str %

61%

35 / 48

Total Strikes

24 / 36

1 / 1

TDs

0 / 0

100%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

1:03

Ctrl Time

1:24

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Donald Cerrone	17 / 26	20 / 29	0 / 0	0
1	Jim Miller	21 / 29	32 / 41	1 / 1	0
2	Donald Cerrone	4 / 7	4 / 7	0 / 0	0
2	Jim Miller	3 / 7	3 / 7	0 / 0	1

Jim Miller

StanceSouthpaw

Height68.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights40

Donald Cerrone

StanceOrthodox

Height73.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights37