Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Rory MacDonald has 27pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Stance matchup historically favors Demian Maia (53.5%).
- Rory MacDonald has a 10cm reach advantage.
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Rory MacDonaldL2 streak
oldest →L
vs Robbie Lawler · Nov 13W
vs Tyron Woodley · Jun 14W
KOvs Tarec Saffiedine · Oct 14L
KOvs Robbie Lawler · Jul 15L
vs Stephen Thompson · Jun 16 Demian MaiaL2 streak
oldest →W
SUBvs Lyman Good · Feb 19W
DECvs Rocco Martin · Jun 19W
SUBvs Ben Askren · Oct 19L
KOvs Gilbert Burns · Mar 20L
vs Belal Muhammad · Jun 21 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Rory MacDonaldMetricDemian Maia
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)+0.95Δ 1.22 — meaningful gap-0.27
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
Rory MacDonaldDemian Maia
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Rory MacDonald(10 fights)Demian Maia(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red -45.2|Blue +45.2
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red +0.2|Blue -0.2
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red +0.7|Blue -0.7
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red +0.1|Blue -0.1
Layoff— Days since last fight (Red − Blue). Positive = Red has been away longer.
Red -38.0|Blue +38.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
Rory MacDonaldTargetDemian Maia
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
Round 1Demian Maia edged it
Sig. strikes6
Takedowns0
Control0:00
27Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
3:51Control
Round 2Rory MacDonald edged it
Sig. strikes40
Takedowns0
Control0:02
13Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 3Rory MacDonald edged it
Sig. strikes29
Takedowns0
Control0:05
11Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
1:09Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.
