Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Raphael Assuncao has 34pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Aljamain Sterling has a 13cm reach advantage.
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Raphael Assuncao
oldest →L
vs Cory Sandhagen · Aug 19L
KOvs Cody Garbrandt · Jun 20L
KOvs Ricky Simon · Dec 21W
vs Victor Henry · Oct 22L
SUBvs Davey Grant · Mar 23 Aljamain SterlingW2 streak
oldest →L
KOvs Sean O'Malley · Aug 23W
vs Calvin Kattar · Apr 24L
vs Movsar Evloev · Dec 24W
vs Brian Ortega · Aug 25W
DECvs Youssef Zalal · Apr 26 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Raphael AssuncaoMetricAljamain Sterling
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)+0.72Δ 1.39 — meaningful gap+2.11
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
Raphael AssuncaoAljamain Sterling
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Raphael Assuncao(10 fights)Aljamain Sterling(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red -28.7|Blue +28.7
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red -0.5|Blue +0.5
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red -0.5|Blue +0.5
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red -0.6|Blue +0.6
Layoff— Days since last fight (Red − Blue). Positive = Red has been away longer.
Red -41.0|Blue +41.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
Raphael AssuncaoTargetAljamain Sterling
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
3
Aljamain Sterling rounds
Round 1Aljamain Sterling edged it
Sig. strikes16
Takedowns0
Control0:00
21Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:02Control
Round 2Aljamain Sterling edged it
Sig. strikes11
Takedowns0
Control0:00
13Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 3Aljamain Sterling edged it
Sig. strikes12
Takedowns0
Control0:00
18Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.
