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Welterweight

5 Rounds

Title Bout

Erick Montano won · S-DEC R3

Elo1358

Elo1357

Erick MontanovsEnrique MarinUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Magny vs Gastelum · Saturday, November 21, 2015Monterrey, Nuevo Leon, Mexico

Official fight result

Erick Montano won

S-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupErick Montano: WrestlervsEnrique Marin: Wrestler

Wrestler-vs-wrestler scrambles. Whoever lands the first takedown often controls the round.

Model Prediction: Erick Montano wins(51.4%)

Actual result: Erick Montano wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Erick Montano at -230 American odds

+$43 profit

$143 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Erick Montano has 14pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.

Tale of the Tape

Erick Montano

Red Corner

Enrique Marin

Blue Corner

-230

(70%)

Vegas Odds

+190

(34%)

1358

Elo

1357

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'0"

Height

5'10"

185.42 cm

Reach

187.96 cm

Recent Form

Last 2 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Erick MontanoL2 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Randy Brown · Sep 16

KOvs Max Griffin · Nov 16

latest

Enrique Marin

oldest →

vs Sage Northcutt · Jul 16

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Erick MontanoMetricEnrique Marin

2.79

Strikes / min

1.43

2.06

Strikes absorbed / min

3.00

64%

Strike defense

50%

2.29

TDs / 15 min

2.50

66%

Takedown defense

60%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

1.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.73Δ 2.30 — meaningful gap-1.57

Not enough statistical data to render a radar chart for this matchup.

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Erick Montano(3 fights)Enrique Marin(2 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +1.0|Blue -1.0

Recent Form

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Grappler Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Erick MontanoTargetEnrique Marin

By target zone

39% acc · 57%

Head

20% acc · 59%

50% acc · 12%

Body

75% acc · 11%

45% acc · 31%

Leg

80% acc · 30%

By position

42% acc · 94%

Distance

27% acc · 89%

40% acc · 4%

Clinch

75% acc · 11%

100% acc · 2%

Ground

0% acc

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Erick Montano rounds

even

Enrique Marin rounds

Round 1Erick Montano edged it

Sig. strikes20

Takedowns1

Control0:51

9Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:02Control

Round 2Enrique Marin edged it

Sig. strikes13

Takedowns0

Control0:35

11Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:56Control

Round 3Erick Montano edged it

Sig. strikes16

Takedowns1

Control1:15

7Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:29Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

49 / 116

Sig Strikes

27 / 94

42.7%

Sig Str %

28.3%

59 / 126

Total Strikes

33 / 102

2 / 3

TDs

1 / 3

75%

TD %

25%

Sub Att

Rev

2:41

Ctrl Time

3:27

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Enrique Marin	9 / 38	13 / 44	0 / 0
1	Erick Montano	20 / 34	22 / 36	1 / 2
2	Enrique Marin	11 / 30	13 / 32	1 / 2
2	Erick Montano	13 / 39	17 / 43	0 / 0
3	Enrique Marin	7 / 26	7 / 26	0 / 1
3	Erick Montano	16 / 43	20 / 47	1 / 1

Erick Montano

StanceOrthodox

Height72.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights3

Enrique Marin

Stance—

Height70.0"

Reach—

Fights2