Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Joseph Benavidez enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
- Joseph Benavidez has 18pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Stance matchup historically favors Joseph Benavidez (53.5%).
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Joseph BenavidezL3 streak
oldest →W
vs Dustin Ortiz · Jan 19W
KOvs Jussier Formiga · Jun 19L
KOvs Deiveson Figueiredo · Feb 20L
SUBvs Deiveson Figueiredo · Jul 20L
vs Askar Askarov · Mar 21 John Moraga
oldest →L
vs Sergio Pettis · Jan 17W
vs Ashkan Mokhtarian · Jun 17W
KOvs Magomed Bibulatov · Oct 17L
KOvs Deiveson Figueiredo · Aug 18 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Joseph BenavidezMetricJohn Moraga
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)+0.85evenly matched on net striking+0.02
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
Joseph BenavidezJohn Moraga
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Joseph Benavidez(10 fights)John Moraga(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red -94.2|Blue +94.2
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red +0.3|Blue -0.3
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red +0.9|Blue -0.9
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red +0.1|Blue -0.1
Layoff— Days since last fight (Red − Blue). Positive = Red has been away longer.
Red +21.0|Blue -21.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
Joseph BenavidezTargetJohn Moraga
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
Round 1Joseph Benavidez edged it
Sig. strikes18
Takedowns2
Control3:46
12Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:40Control
Round 2Joseph Benavidez edged it
Sig. strikes20
Takedowns1
Control2:43
20Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 3Joseph Benavidez edged it
Sig. strikes25
Takedowns1
Control2:40
10Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.
