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Middleweight
3 Rounds
Tim Boetsch won · KO/TKO R1
Elo1361
Elo1371
Tim Boetsch

Rafael NatalvsTim BoetschUFC Prediction Result

UFC 205: Alvarez vs McGregor · Saturday, November 12, 2016New York City, New York, USA

Official fight result

Tim Boetsch won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 3:22

Style matchupRafael Natal: WrestlervsTim Boetsch: Well-rounded

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Rafael Natal wins(60.1%)

Actual result: Tim Boetsch wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Rafael Natal at -145 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Tim Boetsch is a KO finisher (50% of wins). Rafael Natal has lost 57% of fights by KO.
  • Rafael Natal has 18pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Rafael Natal
Red Corner
VS
Tim Boetsch
Blue Corner
-145
(59%)
Vegas Odds
+125
(44%)
1361
Elo
1371
43
Age
45
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
6'0"
Height
6'0"
195.58 cm
Reach
187.96 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Rafael NatalL2 streak
oldest →
W
vs Tom Watson · Jan 15
W
vs Uriah Hall · May 15
W
KOvs Kevin Casey · Jan 16
L
vs Robert Whittaker · Apr 16
L
KOvs Eryk Anders · Jul 17
latest
Tim BoetschL2 streak
oldest →
W
KOvs Josh Samman · Jul 16
L
SUBvs Jacare Souza · Feb 17
W
KOvs Johny Hendricks · Jun 17
L
SUBvs Antonio Carlos Junior · Apr 18
L
vs Omari Akhmedov · Mar 19
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Rafael NatalMetricTim Boetsch
3.10
Strikes / min
2.93
2.48
Strikes absorbed / min
2.90
57%
Strike defense
57%
2.55
TDs / 15 min
1.45
77%
Takedown defense
59%
0.50
Sub atts / 15 min
0.80
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.62evenly matched on net striking+0.03

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1564 vs 1518Strikes42.5 vs 27.7Takedowns2.4 vs 1.1Sub Atts0.47 vs 0.58Form0.3 vs 0.0
Rafael NatalTim Boetsch

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14801490150015101520← oldermost recent →
Rafael Natal(10 fights)Tim Boetsch(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red -10.2|Blue +10.2
Recent Form
Red +0.3|Blue -0.3
Striker Score
Red +0.3|Blue -0.3
Grappler Score
Red +0.2|Blue -0.2
Layoff
Red +81.0|Blue -81.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Rafael NatalTargetTim Boetsch

By target zone

2
15% acc · 40%
Head
9
53% acc · 64%
1
50% acc · 20%
Body
1
25% acc · 7%
2
67% acc · 40%
Leg
4
100% acc · 29%

By position

5
28% acc · 100%
Distance
11
50% acc · 79%
0
Clinch
0
0
Ground
3
100% acc · 21%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

0
Rafael Natal rounds
0
even
1
Tim Boetsch rounds
Round 1Tim Boetsch edged it
Sig. strikes5
Takedowns0
Control0:00
Knockdowns0
14Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:04Control
1Knockdowns
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
1
5 / 18
Sig Strikes
14 / 25
27%
Sig Str %
56%
5 / 18
Total Strikes
14 / 25
0 / 1
TDs
0 / 0
0%
TD %
—
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
0:00
Ctrl Time
0:04

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Tim Boetsch14 / 2514 / 250 / 00
1Rafael Natal5 / 185 / 180 / 10

Rafael Natal

StanceOrthodox
Height72.0"
Reach77.0"
Fights16

Tim Boetsch

StanceOrthodox
Height72.0"
Reach74.0"
Fights20