Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Calvin Kattar enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
- Calvin Kattar has 33pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Calvin KattarL4 streak
oldest →W
vs Giga Chikadze · Jan 22L
KOvs Arnold Allen · Oct 22L
vs Youssef Zalal · Feb 25L
vs Steve Garcia · Jul 25 Aljamain SterlingW2 streak
oldest →W
vs Henry Cejudo · May 23L
KOvs Sean O'Malley · Aug 23L
vs Movsar Evloev · Dec 24W
vs Brian Ortega · Aug 25W
DECvs Youssef Zalal · Apr 26 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Calvin KattarMetricAljamain Sterling
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)-2.14Δ 4.25 — meaningful gap+2.11
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
Calvin KattarAljamain Sterling
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Calvin Kattar(10 fights)Aljamain Sterling(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red -50.7|Blue +50.7
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red -0.8|Blue +0.8
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red -0.3|Blue +0.3
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red -0.4|Blue +0.4
Layoff— Days since last fight (Red − Blue). Positive = Red has been away longer.
Red +294.0|Blue -294.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
Calvin KattarTargetAljamain Sterling
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
3
Aljamain Sterling rounds
Round 1Aljamain Sterling edged it
Sig. strikes6
Takedowns0
Control0:00
15Sig. strikes
4Takedowns
1:51Control
Round 2Aljamain Sterling edged it
Sig. strikes2
Takedowns0
Control0:00
14Sig. strikes
2Takedowns
4:10Control
Round 3Aljamain Sterling edged it
Sig. strikes0
Takedowns0
Control0:05
10Sig. strikes
2Takedowns
4:42Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.
