Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Said Nurmagomedov threatens submissions; Bryce Mitchell has lost 67% of fights by sub.
- Said Nurmagomedov has 30pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Stance matchup historically favors Bryce Mitchell (53.5%).
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Bryce Mitchell
oldest →L
KOvs Josh Emmett · Dec 23W
KOvs Kron Gracie · Dec 24L
SUBvs Jean Silva · Apr 25W
SUBvs Santiago Luna · Jun 26 Said Nurmagomedov
oldest →W
vs Douglas Silva de Andrade · Jul 22W
SUBvs Saidyokub Kakhramonov · Dec 22L
vs Jonathan Martinez · Mar 23W
SUBvs Muin Gafurov · Oct 23L
vs Vinicius Oliveira · Feb 25 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Bryce MitchellMetricSaid Nurmagomedov
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)+0.67evenly matched on net striking+1.03
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
Bryce MitchellSaid Nurmagomedov
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Bryce Mitchell(10 fights)Said Nurmagomedov(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red +34.8|Blue -34.8
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red +0.2|Blue -0.2
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red -0.2|Blue +0.2
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red +0.4|Blue -0.4
Layoff— Days since last fight (Red − Blue). Positive = Red has been away longer.
Red -70.0|Blue +70.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
Bryce MitchellTargetSaid Nurmagomedov
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
1
Said Nurmagomedov rounds
Round 1Said Nurmagomedov edged it
Sig. strikes10
Takedowns0
Control1:37
Knockdowns0
17Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
1:46Control
1Knockdowns
Round 2Bryce Mitchell edged it
Sig. strikes3
Takedowns3
Control3:56
1Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:50Control
Round 3Bryce Mitchell edged it
Sig. strikes0
Takedowns0
Control4:11
2Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:37Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.
