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Middleweight

3 Rounds

Derek Brunson won · KO/TKO R1

Elo1454

Elo1491

Derek BrunsonvsRoan CarneiroUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Cowboy vs Cowboy · Sunday, February 21, 2016Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, USA

Official fight result

Derek Brunson won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 2:38

Style matchupDerek Brunson: WrestlervsRoan Carneiro: Wrestler

Wrestler-vs-wrestler scrambles. Whoever lands the first takedown often controls the round.

Model Prediction: Derek Brunson wins(64.8%)

Actual result: Derek Brunson wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Derek Brunson at -365 American odds

+$27 profit

$127 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Derek Brunson is a KO finisher (50% of wins). Roan Carneiro has lost 50% of fights by KO.
Roan Carneiro has 11pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Stance matchup historically favors Derek Brunson (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Derek Brunson

Red Corner

Roan Carneiro

Blue Corner

-365

(78%)

Vegas Odds

+305

(25%)

1454

Elo

1491

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

6'1"

Height

5'11"

195.58 cm

Reach

193.04 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Derek BrunsonL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Edmen Shahbazyan · Aug 20

vs Kevin Holland · Mar 21

SUBvs Darren Till · Sep 21

KOvs Jared Cannonier · Feb 22

KOvs Dricus Du Plessis · Mar 23

latest

Roan Carneiro

oldest →

SUBvs Mark Munoz · Feb 15

vs Kenny Robertson · Sep 16

vs Ryan LaFlare · Feb 17

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Derek BrunsonMetricRoan Carneiro

3.51

Strikes / min

1.46

3.05

Strikes absorbed / min

1.82

51%

Strike defense

62%

3.14

TDs / 15 min

3.05

85%

Takedown defense

83%

0.60

Sub atts / 15 min

1.40

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.46evenly matched on net striking-0.36

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Derek BrunsonRoan Carneiro

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Derek Brunson(10 fights)Roan Carneiro(4 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -36.4|Blue +36.4

Recent Form

Red -0.2|Blue +0.2

Striker Score

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Grappler Score

Red -0.4|Blue +0.4

Layoff

Red -161.0|Blue +161.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Derek BrunsonTargetRoan Carneiro

By target zone

44% acc · 96%

Head

0% acc

Body

100% acc · 4%

Leg

By position

22% acc · 9%

Distance

0% acc

Clinch

0% acc

50% acc · 91%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Derek Brunson rounds

even

Roan Carneiro rounds

Round 1Derek Brunson edged it

Sig. strikes23

Takedowns0

Control0:42

0Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

23 / 51

Sig Strikes

0 / 13

45%

Sig Str %

27 / 57

Total Strikes

0 / 13

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 1

—

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

0:42

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Roan Carneiro	0 / 13	0 / 13	0 / 1	0
1	Derek Brunson	23 / 51	27 / 57	0 / 0	0

Derek Brunson

StanceSouthpaw

Height73.0"

Reach77.0"

Fights21

Roan Carneiro

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach76.0"

Fights4