Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Paul Craig enters on a 5-fight losing streak.
- Mauricio Rua is a KO finisher (67% of wins). Paul Craig has lost 55% of fights by KO.
- Mauricio Rua has 11pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Mauricio RuaL2 streak
oldest →L
KOvs Anthony Smith · Jul 18W
KOvs Tyson Pedro · Dec 18W
vs Rogerio Nogueira · Jul 20L
vs Ovince Saint Preux · May 22L
KOvs Ihor Potieria · Jan 23 Paul CraigL5 streak
oldest →L
SUBvs Brendan Allen · Nov 23L
KOvs Caio Borralho · May 24L
vs Rodolfo Bellato · Jun 25L
KOvs Modestas Bukauskas · Sep 25 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Mauricio RuaMetricPaul Craig
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)+0.78Δ 1.32 — meaningful gap-0.54
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
Mauricio RuaPaul Craig
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Mauricio Rua(10 fights)Paul Craig(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red -25.4|Blue +25.4
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red +0.3|Blue -0.3
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red +1.4|Blue -1.4
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red -0.2|Blue +0.2
Layoff— Days since last fight (Red − Blue). Positive = Red has been away longer.
Red 0.0|Blue 0.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
Mauricio RuaTargetPaul Craig
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
Round 1Paul Craig edged it
Sig. strikes6
Takedowns0
Control1:44
8Sig. strikes
2Takedowns
1:45Control
Round 2Paul Craig edged it
Sig. strikes4
Takedowns0
Control0:00
21Sig. strikes
2Takedowns
2:01Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.
