Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Dave Herman enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
- Roy Nelson is a KO finisher (88% of wins). Dave Herman has lost 75% of fights by KO.
- Dave Herman has a 10cm reach advantage.
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Roy Nelson
oldest →L
vs Josh Barnett · Sep 15W
vs Jared Rosholt · Feb 16L
vs Derrick Lewis · Jul 16W
KOvs Antonio Silva · Sep 16L
vs Alexander Volkov · Apr 17 Dave HermanL3 streak
oldest →W
KOvs Jon Olav Einemo · Jun 11L
KOvs Stefan Struve · Feb 12L
SUBvs Minotauro Nogueira · Oct 12L
KOvs Gabriel Gonzaga · Jul 13 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Roy NelsonMetricDave Herman
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)-2.61Δ 3.81 — meaningful gap+1.20
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
Roy NelsonDave Herman
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Roy Nelson(10 fights)Dave Herman(5 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red +138.5|Blue -138.5
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red +0.0|Blue -0.0
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red -0.8|Blue +0.8
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red -0.2|Blue +0.2
Layoff— Days since last fight (Red − Blue). Positive = Red has been away longer.
Red +11.0|Blue -11.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
Roy NelsonTargetDave Herman
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
Round 1Roy Nelson edged it
Sig. strikes2
Takedowns0
Control0:02
Knockdowns1
3Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
0Knockdowns
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.
