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Women's Strawweight

3 Rounds

Sam Hughes won · KO/TKO R3

Elo1494

Elo1509

Elise ReedvsSam HughesUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Holm vs. Vieira · Saturday, May 21, 2022Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Sam Hughes won

KO/TKO · Round 3 · 3:52

Style matchupElise Reed: StrikervsSam Hughes: Pressure fighter

The pressure fighter will force exchanges. The cleaner striker needs lateral movement.

Model Prediction: Sam Hughes wins(57.6%)

Actual result: Sam Hughes wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Sam Hughes at +120 American odds

+$120 profit

$220 total returned

Tale of the Tape

Elise Reed

Red Corner

Sam Hughes

Blue Corner

-140

(58%)

Vegas Odds

+120

(45%)

1494

Elo

1509

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'3"

Height

5'5"

160.02 cm

Reach

162.56 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Elise Reed

oldest →

SUBvs Loma Lookboonmee · Feb 23

vs Jinh Yu Frey · Jun 23

SUBvs Loopy Godinez · Sep 23

vs Jessica Penne · Oct 24

KOvs Denise Gomes · May 25

latest

Sam Hughes

oldest →

vs Yazmin Jauregui · Feb 24

vs Viktoriia Dudakova · Aug 24

vs Stephanie Luciano · Mar 25

SUBvs Shauna Bannon · Sep 25

vs Piera Rodriguez · Mar 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Elise ReedMetricSam Hughes

3.41

Strikes / min

4.41

3.26

Strikes absorbed / min

4.69

51%

Strike defense

58%

0.46

TDs / 15 min

1.12

53%

Takedown defense

63%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.20

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.15evenly matched on net striking-0.28

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elise ReedSam Hughes

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Elise Reed(9 fights)Sam Hughes(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -15.7|Blue +15.7

Recent Form

Red +0.5|Blue -0.5

Striker Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Grappler Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Layoff

Red +28.0|Blue -28.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Elise ReedTargetSam Hughes

By target zone

29% acc · 59%

Head

65% acc · 77%

100% acc · 41%

Body

60% acc · 14%

Leg

100% acc · 9%

By position

35% acc · 76%

Distance

37% acc · 16%

100% acc · 24%

Clinch

60% acc · 14%

Ground

83% acc · 70%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Elise Reed rounds

even

Sam Hughes rounds

Round 1Sam Hughes edged it

Sig. strikes16

Takedowns0

Control0:00

15Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

3:38Control

Round 2Sam Hughes edged it

Sig. strikes1

Takedowns0

Control0:00

13Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

4:49Control

Round 3Sam Hughes edged it

Sig. strikes0

Takedowns0

Control0:00

15Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

3:32Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

17 / 41

Sig Strikes

43 / 65

30.5%

Sig Str %

70.7%

70 / 100

Total Strikes

130 / 161

0 / 0

TDs

4 / 7

—

TD %

75%

Sub Att

Rev

0:00

Ctrl Time

11:59

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Sam Hughes	15 / 31	23 / 41	1 / 4
1	Elise Reed	16 / 35	57 / 81	0 / 0
2	Sam Hughes	13 / 15	55 / 60	1 / 1
2	Elise Reed	1 / 6	11 / 17	0 / 0
3	Sam Hughes	15 / 19	52 / 60	2 / 2
3	Elise Reed	0 / 0	2 / 2	0 / 0

Elise Reed

StanceOrthodox

Height63.0"

Reach63.0"

Fights9

Sam Hughes

StanceOrthodox

Height65.0"

Reach64.0"

Fights12