Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Darren Till enters on a 5-fight losing streak.
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Kelvin Gastelum
oldest →L
SUBvs Sean Brady · Dec 23W
vs Daniel Rodriguez · Jun 24W
vs Dustin Stoltzfus · Sep 25L
SUBvs Vicente Luque · Apr 26 Darren TillL5 streak
oldest →L
SUBvs Tyron Woodley · Sep 18L
KOvs Jorge Masvidal · Mar 19L
vs Robert Whittaker · Jul 20L
SUBvs Derek Brunson · Sep 21L
SUBvs Dricus Du Plessis · Dec 22 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Kelvin GastelumMetricDarren Till
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)+0.13Δ 1.14 — meaningful gap-1.01
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
Kelvin GastelumDarren Till
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Kelvin Gastelum(10 fights)Darren Till(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red +48.1|Blue -48.1
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red +0.1|Blue -0.1
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red +0.4|Blue -0.4
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red +0.1|Blue -0.1
Layoff— Days since last fight (Red − Blue). Positive = Red has been away longer.
Red -28.0|Blue +28.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
Kelvin GastelumTargetDarren Till
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
Round 1Kelvin Gastelum edged it
Sig. strikes11
Takedowns0
Control1:35
7Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:31Control
Round 2Kelvin Gastelum edged it
Sig. strikes14
Takedowns0
Control0:41
12Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:04Control
Round 3Even round
Sig. strikes15
Takedowns1
Control0:27
17Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
0:04Control
Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.
