Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Julianna Pena has 10pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
- Sara McMann has 26pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Julianna Pena
oldest →L
SUBvs Germaine de Randamie · Oct 20W
SUBvs Amanda Nunes · Dec 21L
vs Amanda Nunes · Jul 22W
vs Raquel Pennington · Oct 24L
SUBvs Kayla Harrison · Jun 25 Sara McMannW2 streak
oldest →W
SUBvs Gina Mazany · Feb 17L
SUBvs Ketlen Vieira · Sep 17L
SUBvs Marion Reneau · Feb 18W
vs Lina Lansberg · Jan 20 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Julianna PenaMetricSara McMann
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)+0.54evenly matched on net striking+0.34
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
Julianna PenaSara McMann
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Julianna Pena(10 fights)Sara McMann(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red +1.1|Blue -1.1
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red -1.1|Blue +1.1
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red +0.3|Blue -0.3
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red +0.1|Blue -0.1
Layoff— Days since last fight (Red − Blue). Positive = Red has been away longer.
Red -252.0|Blue +252.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
Julianna PenaTargetSara McMann
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
Round 1Sara McMann edged it
Sig. strikes5
Takedowns0
Control0:00
12Sig. strikes
2Takedowns
2:58Control
Round 2Sara McMann edged it
Sig. strikes13
Takedowns0
Control0:08
8Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
4:11Control
Round 3Julianna Pena edged it
Sig. strikes20
Takedowns1
Control2:47
1Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:12Control
Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.
