Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Chad Mendes is a KO finisher (67% of wins). Alexander Volkanovski has lost 67% of fights by KO.
- Chad Mendes has 32pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Alexander Volkanovski has a 13cm reach advantage.
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Chad Mendes
oldest →W
KOvs Ricardo Lamas · Apr 15L
KOvs Conor McGregor · Jul 15L
KOvs Frankie Edgar · Dec 15W
KOvs Myles Jury · Jul 18 Alexander VolkanovskiW2 streak
oldest →W
KOvs Yair Rodriguez · Jul 23L
KOvs Islam Makhachev · Oct 23L
KOvs Ilia Topuria · Feb 24 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Chad MendesMetricAlexander Volkanovski
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)+0.43Δ 2.25 — meaningful gap+2.68
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
Chad MendesAlexander Volkanovski
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Chad Mendes(10 fights)Alexander Volkanovski(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red -29.3|Blue +29.3
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red -0.2|Blue +0.2
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red -1.4|Blue +1.4
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red -0.1|Blue +0.1
Layoff— Days since last fight (Red − Blue). Positive = Red has been away longer.
Red 0.0|Blue 0.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
Chad MendesTargetAlexander Volkanovski
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
1
Alexander Volkanovski rounds
Round 1Chad Mendes edged it
Sig. strikes15
Takedowns1
Control0:09
16Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 2Alexander Volkanovski edged it
Sig. strikes13
Takedowns2
Control0:36
Knockdowns1
38Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:08Control
1Knockdowns
