Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Charles Oliveira threatens submissions; Dustin Poirier has lost 44% of fights by sub.
- Stance matchup historically favors Dustin Poirier (53.5%).
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Charles OliveiraW2 streak
oldest →L
vs Arman Tsarukyan · Apr 24W
vs Michael Chandler · Nov 24L
KOvs Ilia Topuria · Jun 25W
SUBvs Mateusz Gamrot · Oct 25W
vs Max Holloway · Mar 26 Dustin PoirierL2 streak
oldest →W
SUBvs Michael Chandler · Nov 22L
KOvs Justin Gaethje · Jul 23W
KOvs Benoit Saint Denis · Mar 24L
SUBvs Islam Makhachev · Jun 24L
vs Max Holloway · Jul 25 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Charles OliveiraMetricDustin Poirier
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)+0.18evenly matched on net striking+0.67
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
Charles OliveiraDustin Poirier
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Charles Oliveira(10 fights)Dustin Poirier(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red +27.5|Blue -27.5
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red +0.1|Blue -0.1
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red -1.4|Blue +1.4
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red +0.1|Blue -0.1
Layoff— Days since last fight (Red − Blue). Positive = Red has been away longer.
Red +56.0|Blue -56.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
Charles OliveiraTargetDustin Poirier
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
Round 1Dustin Poirier edged it
Sig. strikes48
Takedowns0
Control0:26
Knockdowns0
54Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:19Control
1Knockdowns
Round 2Charles Oliveira edged it
Sig. strikes23
Takedowns0
Control4:27
3Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:16Control
Round 3Charles Oliveira edged it
Sig. strikes2
Takedowns0
Control0:48
1Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.
