Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Michael Chiesa enters on a 4-fight win streak.
- Al Iaquinta enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
- Michael Chiesa threatens submissions; Al Iaquinta has lost 33% of fights by sub.
- Stance matchup historically favors Michael Chiesa (53.5%).
- Michael Chiesa has a 13cm reach advantage.
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Michael ChiesaW4 streak
oldest →L
SUBvs Kevin Holland · Jul 23W
SUBvs Tony Ferguson · Aug 24W
SUBvs Max Griffin · Dec 24W
SUBvs Niko Price · Mar 26 Al IaquintaL3 streak
oldest →L
vs Khabib Nurmagomedov · Apr 18L
vs Donald Cerrone · May 19L
KOvs Bobby Green · Nov 21 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Michael ChiesaMetricAl Iaquinta
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)+0.29evenly matched on net striking-0.47
Not enough statistical data to render a radar chart for this matchup.
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Michael Chiesa(10 fights)Al Iaquinta(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red +117.8|Blue -117.8
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red 0.0|Blue 0.0
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red 0.0|Blue 0.0
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red 0.0|Blue 0.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
Michael ChiesaTargetAl Iaquinta
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
Round 1Michael Chiesa edged it
Sig. strikes9
Takedowns1
Control1:05
8Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.
