Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Nik Lentz enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
- Chad Mendes has 17pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
- Chad Mendes has 57pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Chad Mendes
oldest →W
KOvs Ricardo Lamas · Apr 15L
KOvs Conor McGregor · Jul 15L
KOvs Frankie Edgar · Dec 15W
KOvs Myles Jury · Jul 18L
KOvs Alexander Volkanovski · Dec 18 Nik LentzL3 streak
oldest →W
KOvs Gray Maynard · Oct 18W
vs Scott Holtzman · Feb 19L
KOvs Charles Oliveira · May 19L
vs Arnold Allen · Jan 20L
vs Movsar Evloev · Jan 21 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Chad MendesMetricNik Lentz
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)+0.43evenly matched on net striking+0.19
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
Chad MendesNik Lentz
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Chad Mendes(10 fights)Nik Lentz(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red +96.5|Blue -96.5
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red +0.3|Blue -0.3
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red -1.1|Blue +1.1
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red -0.5|Blue +0.5
Layoff— Days since last fight (Red − Blue). Positive = Red has been away longer.
Red -105.0|Blue +105.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
Chad MendesTargetNik Lentz
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
Round 1Chad Mendes edged it
Sig. strikes15
Takedowns3
Control2:05
13Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:05Control
Round 2Chad Mendes edged it
Sig. strikes10
Takedowns3
Control1:51
9Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 3Nik Lentz edged it
Sig. strikes10
Takedowns1
Control1:19
18Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.
