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Featherweight

3 Rounds

Steve Garcia won · KO/TKO R2

Elo1497

Elo1534

Shayilan NuerdanbiekevsSteve GarciaUFC Prediction Result

UFC 287: Pereira vs. Adesanya 2 · Saturday, April 8, 2023Miami, Florida, USA

Official fight result

Steve Garcia won

KO/TKO · Round 2 · 0:36

Style matchupShayilan Nuerdanbieke: WrestlervsSteve Garcia: Elusive striker

The wrestler must close distance through high-output striking. The elusive striker thrives in space.

Model Prediction: Steve Garcia wins(62.2%)

Actual result: Steve Garcia wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Steve Garcia at +144 American odds

+$144 profit

$244 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Steve Garcia has 60pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Steve Garcia (53.5%).
Steve Garcia has a 15cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Shayilan Nuerdanbieke

Red Corner

Steve Garcia

Blue Corner

-172

(63%)

Vegas Odds

+144

(41%)

1497

Elo

1534

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

5'8"

Height

6'0"

175.26 cm

Reach

190.5 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Shayilan Nuerdanbieke

oldest →

vs Josh Culibao · May 21

vs Sean Soriano · Nov 21

vs TJ Brown · Jun 22

KOvs Darrick Minner · Nov 22

SUBvs Melquizael Costa · Jun 24

latest

Steve Garcia

oldest →

KOvs SeungWoo Choi · Jul 24

KOvs Kyle Nelson · Sep 24

vs Calvin Kattar · Jul 25

KOvs David Onama · Nov 25

KOvs Diego Lopes · Jun 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Shayilan NuerdanbiekeMetricSteve Garcia

1.95

Strikes / min

5.39

2.64

Strikes absorbed / min

2.12

50%

Strike defense

59%

3.30

TDs / 15 min

0.86

28%

Takedown defense

88%

0.20

Sub atts / 15 min

0.40

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.69Δ 3.96 — meaningful gap+3.27

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Shayilan NuerdanbiekeSteve Garcia

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Shayilan Nuerdanbieke(6 fights)Steve Garcia(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -36.5|Blue +36.5

Recent Form

Red +0.5|Blue -0.5

Striker Score

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Grappler Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Layoff

Red -7.0|Blue +7.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Shayilan NuerdanbiekeTargetSteve Garcia

By target zone

48% acc · 83%

Head

38% acc · 82%

75% acc · 17%

Body

100% acc · 18%

Leg

By position

50% acc · 44%

Distance

34% acc · 71%

Clinch

100% acc · 6%

53% acc · 56%

Ground

100% acc · 24%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Shayilan Nuerdanbieke rounds

even

Steve Garcia rounds

Round 1Shayilan Nuerdanbieke edged it

Sig. strikes16

Takedowns1

Control3:33

Knockdowns1

6Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:07Control

0Knockdowns

Round 2Steve Garcia edged it

Sig. strikes2

Takedowns0

Control0:01

Knockdowns0

11Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:08Control

1Knockdowns

Fight Stats

Totals

18 / 35

Sig Strikes

17 / 40

58%

Sig Str %

45%

31 / 63

Total Strikes

50 / 77

1 / 2

TDs

0 / 0

50%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

3:34

Ctrl Time

0:15

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Steve Garcia	6 / 23	39 / 60	0 / 0
1	Shayilan Nuerdanbieke	16 / 32	29 / 60	1 / 2
2	Steve Garcia	11 / 17	11 / 17	0 / 0
2	Shayilan Nuerdanbieke	2 / 3	2 / 3	0 / 0

Shayilan Nuerdanbieke

StanceOrthodox

Height68.0"

Reach69.0"

Fights6

Steve Garcia

StanceSouthpaw

Height72.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights10