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Light Heavyweight

5 Rounds

Thiago Santos won · KO/TKO R3

Elo1493

Elo1432

Jan BlachowiczvsThiago SantosUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Blachowicz vs. Santos · Saturday, February 23, 2019Prague, Czech Republic

Official fight result

Thiago Santos won

KO/TKO · Round 3 · 0:39

Style matchupJan Blachowicz: Well-roundedvsThiago Santos: Well-rounded

Well-rounded vs well-rounded. Usually decided by who imposes their gameplan first.

Model Prediction: Jan Blachowicz wins(55.6%)

Actual result: Thiago Santos wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Jan Blachowicz at +110 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Tale of the Tape

Jan Blachowicz

Red Corner

Thiago Santos

Blue Corner

+110

(48%)

Vegas Odds

-130

(57%)

1493

Elo

1432

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'2"

Height

6'2"

198.12 cm

Reach

193.04 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Jan Blachowicz

oldest →

SUBvs Glover Teixeira · Oct 21

KOvs Aleksandar Rakic · May 22

vs Alex Pereira · Jul 23

vs Carlos Ulberg · Mar 25

vs Bogdan Guskov · Dec 25

latest

Thiago SantosL2 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Glover Teixeira · Nov 20

vs Aleksandar Rakic · Mar 21

vs Johnny Walker · Oct 21

vs Magomed Ankalaev · Mar 22

KOvs Jamahal Hill · Aug 22

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Jan BlachowiczMetricThiago Santos

3.55

Strikes / min

3.72

3.14

Strikes absorbed / min

2.57

52%

Strike defense

53%

0.98

TDs / 15 min

0.88

69%

Takedown defense

65%

0.40

Sub atts / 15 min

0.10

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.41evenly matched on net striking+1.15

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Jan BlachowiczThiago Santos

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Jan Blachowicz(10 fights)Thiago Santos(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +61.2|Blue -61.2

Recent Form

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Striker Score

Red +1.0|Blue -1.0

Grappler Score

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Layoff

Red +84.0|Blue -84.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Jan BlachowiczTargetThiago Santos

By target zone

23% acc · 35%

Head

36% acc · 40%

50% acc · 30%

Body

50% acc · 10%

70% acc · 35%

Leg

72% acc · 50%

By position

37% acc · 95%

Distance

46% acc · 73%

50% acc · 5%

Clinch

100% acc · 2%

Ground

62% acc · 25%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Jan Blachowicz rounds

even

Thiago Santos rounds

Round 1Thiago Santos edged it

Sig. strikes7

Takedowns0

Control0:05

22Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Even round

Sig. strikes12

Takedowns0

Control0:00

13Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Thiago Santos edged it

Sig. strikes1

Takedowns0

Control0:00

Knockdowns0

17Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:08Control

1Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

20 / 53

Sig Strikes

52 / 104

36.7%

Sig Str %

51%

20 / 53

Total Strikes

52 / 104

0 / 1

TDs

1 / 1

TD %

100%

Sub Att

Rev

0:05

Ctrl Time

0:08

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Thiago Santos	22 / 44	22 / 44	0 / 0
1	Jan Blachowicz	7 / 27	7 / 27	0 / 1
2	Thiago Santos	13 / 34	13 / 34	0 / 0
2	Jan Blachowicz	12 / 23	12 / 23	0 / 0
3	Thiago Santos	17 / 26	17 / 26	1 / 1
3	Jan Blachowicz	1 / 3	1 / 3	0 / 0

Jan Blachowicz

StanceOrthodox

Height74.0"

Reach78.0"

Fights21

Thiago Santos

StanceOrthodox

Height74.0"

Reach76.0"

Fights24