Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Paddy Holohan has 39pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Paddy HolohanW2 streak
oldest →W
SUBvs Joshua Sampo · Jul 14L
vs Chris Kelades · Oct 14W
vs Shane Howell · Jan 15 Louis SmolkaL2 streak
oldest →W
KOvs Ryan MacDonald · Sep 19L
SUBvs Casey Kenney · May 20W
KOvs Jose Quinonez · Dec 20L
KOvs Vince Morales · Dec 21L
KOvs Davey Grant · May 22 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Paddy HolohanMetricLouis Smolka
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)-0.68Δ 1.24 — meaningful gap+0.56
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
Paddy HolohanLouis Smolka
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Paddy Holohan(5 fights)Louis Smolka(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red +65.6|Blue -65.6
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red -0.1|Blue +0.1
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red -2.6|Blue +2.6
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red +0.2|Blue -0.2
Layoff— Days since last fight (Red − Blue). Positive = Red has been away longer.
Red -7.0|Blue +7.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
Paddy HolohanTargetLouis Smolka
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
Round 1Paddy Holohan edged it
Sig. strikes11
Takedowns3
Control2:42
19Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
1:08Control
Round 2Louis Smolka edged it
Sig. strikes5
Takedowns1
Control1:33
40Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
1:49Control
