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Light Heavyweight

3 Rounds

Bogdan Guskov won · SUB R2

Elo1522

Elo1544

Bogdan GuskovvsBilly ElekanaUFC Prediction Result

UFC 311: Makhachev vs. Moicano · Saturday, January 18, 2025Inglewood, California, USA

Official fight result

Bogdan Guskov won

SUB · Round 2 · 3:33

Model Prediction: Bogdan Guskov wins(76.6%)

Actual result: Bogdan Guskov wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Bogdan Guskov at -420 American odds

+$24 profit

$124 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Billy Elekana enters on a 3-fight win streak.
Billy Elekana threatens submissions; Bogdan Guskov has lost 33% of fights by sub.
Bogdan Guskov has 57pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Billy Elekana (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Bogdan Guskov

Red Corner

Billy Elekana

Blue Corner

-420

(81%)

Vegas Odds

+330

(23%)

1522

Elo

1544

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

6'3"

Height

6'3"

193.04 cm

Reach

195.58 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Bogdan Guskov

oldest →

KOvs Zac Pauga · Feb 24

KOvs Ryan Spann · Apr 24

KOvs Nikita Krylov · Jul 25

vs Jan Blachowicz · Dec 25

KOvs Magomed Ankalaev · Jul 26

latest

Billy ElekanaW3 streak

oldest →

vs Ibo Aslan · Jul 25

SUBvs Kevin Christian · Nov 25

SUBvs Junior Tafa · Jan 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Bogdan GuskovMetricBilly Elekana

4.57

Strikes / min

2.71

4.09

Strikes absorbed / min

3.59

44%

Strike defense

46%

0.00

TDs / 15 min

0.85

57%

Takedown defense

0.70

Sub atts / 15 min

0.80

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.48Δ 1.36 — meaningful gap-0.88

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Bogdan GuskovBilly Elekana

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Bogdan Guskov(7 fights)Billy Elekana(4 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -21.7|Blue +21.7

Recent Form

Red +0.6|Blue -0.6

Striker Score

Red -49.6|Blue +49.6

Grappler Score

Red -50.0|Blue +50.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Bogdan GuskovTargetBilly Elekana

By target zone

62% acc · 83%

Head

72% acc · 90%

100% acc · 11%

Body

67% acc · 10%

100% acc · 6%

Leg

By position

56% acc · 40%

Distance

62% acc · 65%

100% acc · 23%

Clinch

65% acc · 36%

Ground

100% acc · 35%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Bogdan Guskov rounds

even

Billy Elekana rounds

Round 1Billy Elekana edged it

Sig. strikes12

Takedowns0

Control0:44

8Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

3:40Control

Round 2Bogdan Guskov edged it

Sig. strikes35

Takedowns0

Control0:40

12Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Fight Stats

Totals

47 / 71

Sig Strikes

20 / 28

67%

Sig Str %

75.5%

59 / 85

Total Strikes

28 / 37

0 / 0

TDs

1 / 1

—

TD %

100%

Sub Att

Rev

1:24

Ctrl Time

3:40

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Billy Elekana	8 / 9	16 / 18	1 / 1	0
1	Bogdan Guskov	12 / 17	19 / 25	0 / 0	1
2	Billy Elekana	12 / 19	12 / 19	0 / 0	0
2	Bogdan Guskov	35 / 54	40 / 60	0 / 0	1

Bogdan Guskov

StanceOrthodox

Height75.0"

Reach76.0"

Fights8

Billy Elekana

StanceSouthpaw

Height75.0"

Reach77.0"

Fights4