Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Rafael Dos Anjos enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
- Donald Cerrone enters on a 5-fight losing streak.
- Donald Cerrone has 19pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Stance matchup historically favors Rafael Dos Anjos (53.5%).
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Rafael Dos AnjosL3 streak
oldest →L
KOvs Rafael Fiziev · Jul 22W
SUBvs Bryan Barberena · Dec 22L
vs Vicente Luque · Aug 23L
vs Mateusz Gamrot · Mar 24L
KOvs Geoff Neal · Oct 24 Donald CerroneL5 streak
oldest →L
KOvs Justin Gaethje · Sep 19L
KOvs Conor McGregor · Jan 20L
vs Anthony Pettis · May 20L
KOvs Alex Morono · May 21L
SUBvs Jim Miller · Jul 22 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Rafael Dos AnjosMetricDonald Cerrone
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)+0.25evenly matched on net striking-0.07
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
Rafael Dos AnjosDonald Cerrone
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Rafael Dos Anjos(10 fights)Donald Cerrone(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red +61.9|Blue -61.9
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red -0.3|Blue +0.3
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red -0.9|Blue +0.9
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red +0.3|Blue -0.3
Layoff— Days since last fight (Red − Blue). Positive = Red has been away longer.
Red +70.0|Blue -70.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
Rafael Dos AnjosTargetDonald Cerrone
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
Round 1Rafael Dos Anjos edged it
Sig. strikes26
Takedowns0
Control0:09
4Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.
