Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Mauricio Rua enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
- Rogerio Nogueira is a KO finisher (60% of wins). Mauricio Rua has lost 60% of fights by KO.
- Stance matchup historically favors Rogerio Nogueira (53.5%).
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Mauricio RuaL3 streak
oldest →W
KOvs Tyson Pedro · Dec 18W
vs Rogerio Nogueira · Jul 20L
KOvs Paul Craig · Nov 20L
vs Ovince Saint Preux · May 22L
KOvs Ihor Potieria · Jan 23 Rogerio NogueiraL2 streak
oldest →W
KOvs Patrick Cummins · May 16L
KOvs Ryan Bader · Nov 16L
KOvs Ryan Spann · May 19L
vs Mauricio Rua · Jul 20 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Mauricio RuaMetricRogerio Nogueira
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)+0.78evenly matched on net striking+0.09
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
Mauricio RuaRogerio Nogueira
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Mauricio Rua(10 fights)Rogerio Nogueira(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red +60.7|Blue -60.7
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red -0.1|Blue +0.1
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red +1.2|Blue -1.2
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red +0.1|Blue -0.1
Layoff— Days since last fight (Red − Blue). Positive = Red has been away longer.
Red -105.0|Blue +105.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
Mauricio RuaTargetRogerio Nogueira
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
Round 1Rogerio Nogueira edged it
Sig. strikes16
Takedowns0
Control0:00
38Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:14Control
Round 2Mauricio Rua edged it
Sig. strikes13
Takedowns1
Control2:37
6Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 3Mauricio Rua edged it
Sig. strikes24
Takedowns1
Control1:42
19Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.
