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Light Heavyweight

3 Rounds

Ryan Spann won · KO/TKO R1

Elo1522

Elo1519

Dominick ReyesvsRyan SpannUFC Prediction Result

UFC 281: Adesanya vs. Pereira · Saturday, November 12, 2022New York City, New York, USA

Official fight result

Ryan Spann won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 1:20

Style matchupDominick Reyes: StrikervsRyan Spann: Submission grappler

Striker must keep this standing. Grappler wins big if it hits the floor.

Model Prediction: Dominick Reyes wins(54.8%)

Actual result: Ryan Spann wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Dominick Reyes at -195 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Dominick Reyes is a KO finisher (56% of wins). Ryan Spann has lost 50% of fights by KO.
Dominick Reyes has 23pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Striker vs grappler stylistic clash — fight location (standing vs ground) typically decides it.
Stance matchup historically favors Dominick Reyes (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Dominick Reyes

Red Corner

Ryan Spann

Blue Corner

-195

(66%)

Vegas Odds

+165

(38%)

1522

Elo

1519

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

6'4"

Height

6'5"

195.58 cm

Reach

200.66 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Dominick Reyes

oldest →

KOvs Dustin Jacoby · Jun 24

KOvs Anthony Smith · Dec 24

KOvs Nikita Krylov · Apr 25

KOvs Carlos Ulberg · Sep 25

DECvs Johnny Walker · Apr 26

latest

Ryan SpannW2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Bogdan Guskov · Apr 24

SUBvs Ovince Saint Preux · Oct 24

KOvs Waldo Cortes Acosta · Mar 25

SUBvs Lukasz Brzeski · Jul 25

KOvs Marcus Buchecha · Apr 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Dominick ReyesMetricRyan Spann

4.99

Strikes / min

3.11

3.40

Strikes absorbed / min

3.92

49%

Strike defense

43%

0.25

TDs / 15 min

1.21

82%

Takedown defense

59%

0.20

Sub atts / 15 min

1.70

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.59Δ 2.40 — meaningful gap-0.81

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Dominick ReyesRyan Spann

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Dominick Reyes(10 fights)Ryan Spann(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +3.3|Blue -3.3

Recent Form

Red -1.0|Blue +1.0

Striker Score

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Grappler Score

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Layoff

Red +378.0|Blue -378.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Dominick ReyesTargetRyan Spann

By target zone

13% acc · 20%

Head

44% acc · 88%

100% acc · 80%

Body

100% acc · 13%

Leg

By position

42% acc · 100%

Distance

44% acc · 88%

Clinch

Ground

100% acc · 13%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Dominick Reyes rounds

even

Ryan Spann rounds

Round 1Ryan Spann edged it

Sig. strikes5

Takedowns0

Control0:00

Knockdowns0

8Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:03Control

1Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

5 / 12

Sig Strikes

8 / 17

41%

Sig Str %

47%

5 / 12

Total Strikes

8 / 17

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 1

—

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

0:00

Ctrl Time

0:03

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Ryan Spann	8 / 17	8 / 17	0 / 1	0
1	Dominick Reyes	5 / 12	5 / 12	0 / 0	0

Dominick Reyes

StanceSouthpaw

Height76.0"

Reach77.0"

Fights13

Ryan Spann

StanceOrthodox

Height77.0"

Reach79.0"

Fights17