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Lightweight

3 Rounds

Beneil Dariush won · U-DEC R3

Elo1489

Elo1480

Diego FerreiravsBeneil DariushUFC Prediction Result

UFC 179: Aldo vs Mendes 2 · Saturday, October 25, 2014Rio de Janeiro, Brazil

Official fight result

Beneil Dariush won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupDiego Ferreira: Well-roundedvsBeneil Dariush: Wrestler

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Diego Ferreira wins(77.7%)

Actual result: Beneil Dariush wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Diego Ferreira at -245 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Diego Ferreira is a KO finisher (50% of wins). Beneil Dariush has lost 88% of fights by KO.
Beneil Dariush has 25pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Beneil Dariush (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Diego Ferreira

Red Corner

Beneil Dariush

Blue Corner

-245

(71%)

Vegas Odds

+225

(31%)

1489

Elo

1480

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

5'9"

Height

5'10"

187.96 cm

Reach

182.88 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Diego FerreiraL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Mateusz Gamrot · Dec 21

KOvs Michael Johnson · May 23

KOvs Mateusz Rebecki · May 24

vs Grant Dawson · Jan 25

KOvs Alexander Hernandez · Sep 25

latest

Beneil DariushL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Charles Oliveira · Jun 23

KOvs Arman Tsarukyan · Dec 23

vs Renato Moicano · Jun 25

KOvs Benoit Saint Denis · Nov 25

KOvs Quillan Salkilld · May 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Diego FerreiraMetricBeneil Dariush

4.70

Strikes / min

3.74

3.46

Strikes absorbed / min

2.63

55%

Strike defense

57%

0.82

TDs / 15 min

2.21

57%

Takedown defense

82%

0.60

Sub atts / 15 min

0.80

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.24evenly matched on net striking+1.11

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Diego FerreiraBeneil Dariush

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Diego Ferreira(10 fights)Beneil Dariush(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +8.4|Blue -8.4

Recent Form

Red +0.6|Blue -0.6

Striker Score

Red -0.0|Blue +0.0

EVEN

Grappler Score

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Layoff

Red -7.0|Blue +7.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Diego FerreiraTargetBeneil Dariush

By target zone

15% acc · 52%

Head

40% acc · 59%

67% acc · 38%

Body

60% acc · 19%

100% acc · 10%

Leg

70% acc · 22%

By position

20% acc · 67%

Distance

38% acc · 38%

50% acc · 33%

Clinch

59% acc · 31%

Ground

53% acc · 31%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Diego Ferreira rounds

even

Beneil Dariush rounds

Round 1Beneil Dariush edged it

Sig. strikes10

Takedowns0

Control0:21

9Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:01Control

Round 2Beneil Dariush edged it

Sig. strikes1

Takedowns0

Control0:08

11Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

2:55Control

Round 3Beneil Dariush edged it

Sig. strikes10

Takedowns0

Control0:08

12Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

3:57Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

21 / 85

Sig Strikes

32 / 68

23%

Sig Str %

49.7%

24 / 90

Total Strikes

54 / 97

0 / 1

TDs

3 / 6

TD %

61%

Sub Att

Rev

0:37

Ctrl Time

7:53

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Beneil Dariush	9 / 29	12 / 33	1 / 1
1	Diego Ferreira	10 / 47	11 / 49	0 / 1
2	Beneil Dariush	11 / 18	22 / 33	1 / 3
2	Diego Ferreira	1 / 14	1 / 14	0 / 0
3	Beneil Dariush	12 / 21	20 / 31	1 / 2
3	Diego Ferreira	10 / 24	12 / 27	0 / 0

Diego Ferreira

StanceOrthodox

Height69.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights17

Beneil Dariush

StanceSouthpaw

Height70.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights24