Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Brad Riddell enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
- Brad Riddell has 12pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
- Brad Riddell has 40pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Brad RiddellL3 streak
oldest →W
vs Alex Da Silva · Sep 20L
KOvs Rafael Fiziev · Dec 21L
SUBvs Jalin Turner · Jul 22L
SUBvs Renato Moicano · Nov 22 Magomed Mustafaev
oldest →W
KOvs Piotr Hallmann · Jun 15W
KOvs Joe Proctor · Dec 15L
SUBvs Kevin Lee · Nov 16W
KOvs Rafael Fiziev · Apr 19 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Brad RiddellMetricMagomed Mustafaev
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)+1.18Δ 1.27 — meaningful gap-0.09
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
Brad RiddellMagomed Mustafaev
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Brad Riddell(7 fights)Magomed Mustafaev(5 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red -51.2|Blue +51.2
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red +0.1|Blue -0.1
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red -0.4|Blue +0.4
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red +0.4|Blue -0.4
Layoff— Days since last fight (Red − Blue). Positive = Red has been away longer.
Red -168.0|Blue +168.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
Brad RiddellTargetMagomed Mustafaev
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
2
Magomed Mustafaev rounds
Round 1Magomed Mustafaev edged it
Sig. strikes3
Takedowns0
Control0:36
Knockdowns1
12Sig. strikes
4Takedowns
3:05Control
0Knockdowns
Round 2Magomed Mustafaev edged it
Sig. strikes17
Takedowns0
Control0:02
12Sig. strikes
3Takedowns
2:00Control
Round 3Brad Riddell edged it
Sig. strikes18
Takedowns1
Control1:24
4Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
1:55Control
Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.
