Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Darren Elkins
oldest →L
KOvs Cub Swanson · Dec 21L
vs Jonathan Pearce · Dec 22W
vs Daniel Pineda · Oct 24L
KOvs Julian Erosa · Apr 25 Tristan Connelly
oldest →W
vs Michel Pereira · Sep 19L
vs Pat Sabatini · Apr 21 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Darren ElkinsMetricTristan Connelly
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)+0.06evenly matched on net striking+0.35
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
Darren ElkinsTristan Connelly
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Darren Elkins(10 fights)Tristan Connelly(3 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red +75.8|Blue -75.8
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red +0.6|Blue -0.6
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red +1.0|Blue -1.0
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red +0.3|Blue -0.3
Layoff— Days since last fight (Red − Blue). Positive = Red has been away longer.
Red -238.0|Blue +238.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
Darren ElkinsTargetTristan Connelly
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
Round 1Darren Elkins edged it
Sig. strikes19
Takedowns3
Control3:40
7Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:08Control
Round 2Even round
Sig. strikes28
Takedowns1
Control2:07
34Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:12Control
Round 3Darren Elkins edged it
Sig. strikes28
Takedowns1
Control2:05
25Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:38Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.
