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Welterweight
3 Rounds
Ricardo Almeida won · U-DEC R3
Elo1490
TJ Grant
Elo1490
Ricardo Almeida

TJ GrantvsRicardo AlmeidaUFC Prediction Result

UFC 124: St-Pierre vs Koscheck 2 · Saturday, December 11, 2010Montreal, Quebec, Canada

Official fight result

Ricardo Almeida won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: TJ Grant wins(57.8%)

Actual result: Ricardo Almeida wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

TJ Grant at +130 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • TJ Grant enters on a 5-fight win streak.

Tale of the Tape

TJ Grant
Red Corner
VS
Ricardo Almeida
Blue Corner
+130
(43%)
Vegas Odds
-150
(60%)
1490
Elo
1490
42
Age
49
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'10"
Height
6'0"
182.88 cm
Reach
187.96 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

TJ GrantW5 streak
oldest →
W
SUBvs Shane Roller · Oct 11
W
vs Carlo Prater · May 12
W
vs Evan Dunham · Sep 12
W
KOvs Matt Wiman · Jan 13
W
KOvs Gray Maynard · May 13
latest
Ricardo AlmeidaL2 streak
oldest →
W
SUBvs Matt Brown · Mar 10
L
SUBvs Matt Hughes · Aug 10
L
vs Mike Pyle · Mar 11
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

TJ GrantMetricRicardo Almeida
3.95
Strikes / min
2.02
3.21
Strikes absorbed / min
1.20
56%
Strike defense
61%
1.63
TDs / 15 min
3.74
36%
Takedown defense
31%
0.60
Sub atts / 15 min
1.20
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.74evenly matched on net striking+0.82

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1500 vs 1500Strikes33.6 vs 17.7Takedowns1.8 vs 2.8Sub Atts0.20 vs 1.22Form0.2 vs -0.2
TJ GrantRicardo Almeida

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14901495150015051510← oldermost recent →
TJ Grant(8 fights)Ricardo Almeida(4 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red 0.0|Blue 0.0
EVEN
Recent Form
Red +0.3|Blue -0.3
Striker Score
Red +0.8|Blue -0.8
Grappler Score
Red -0.5|Blue +0.5
Layoff
Red -49.0|Blue +49.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

TJ GrantTargetRicardo Almeida

By target zone

2
14% acc · 33%
Head
41
53% acc · 85%
1
100% acc · 17%
Body
5
100% acc · 10%
3
100% acc · 50%
Leg
2
100% acc · 4%

By position

3
33% acc · 50%
Distance
8
53% acc · 17%
1
20% acc · 17%
Clinch
1
50% acc · 2%
2
50% acc · 33%
Ground
39
57% acc · 81%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

0
TJ Grant rounds
0
even
3
Ricardo Almeida rounds
Round 1Ricardo Almeida edged it
Sig. strikes1
Takedowns0
Control0:00
17Sig. strikes
2Takedowns
4:26Control
Round 2Ricardo Almeida edged it
Sig. strikes4
Takedowns0
Control0:35
5Sig. strikes
2Takedowns
3:45Control
Round 3Ricardo Almeida edged it
Sig. strikes1
Takedowns0
Control0:17
26Sig. strikes
2Takedowns
4:07Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
0
6 / 18
Sig Strikes
48 / 85
29.7%
Sig Str %
51.7%
20 / 33
Total Strikes
93 / 136
0 / 1
TDs
6 / 8
0%
TD %
77.3%
0
Sub Att
0
1
Rev
0
0:52
Ctrl Time
12:18

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Ricardo Almeida17 / 3433 / 502 / 30
1TJ Grant1 / 47 / 110 / 00
2Ricardo Almeida5 / 1511 / 262 / 30
2TJ Grant4 / 97 / 120 / 10
3Ricardo Almeida26 / 3649 / 602 / 20
3TJ Grant1 / 56 / 100 / 00

TJ Grant

StanceOrthodox
Height70.0"
Reach72.0"
Fights8

Ricardo Almeida

StanceOrthodox
Height72.0"
Reach74.0"
Fights4