Flyweight

3 Rounds

Rei Tsuruya won · Submission R1

Elo1518

Elo1487

Rei TsuruyavsKevin BorjasUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Nurmagomedov vs. Song · Saturday, August 29, 2026Shanghai, China

Official fight result

Rei Tsuruya won

Submission · Round 1 · 4:14

Engine 7.0 was correct

Pre-fight pick: Rei Tsuruya

Style matchupRei Tsuruya: WrestlervsKevin Borjas: Striker

Classic wrestler-vs-striker. The wrestler historically gets the edge if they can close distance and finish takedowns.

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Kevin Borjas has 20pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Striker vs grappler stylistic clash — fight location (standing vs ground) typically decides it.

Tale of the Tape

Rei Tsuruya

Red Corner

Kevin Borjas

Blue Corner

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Vegas Odds

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1518

Elo

1487

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'6"

Height

5'5"

172.72 cm

Reach

172.72 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Rei Tsuruya

oldest →

vs Carlos Hernandez · Jun 24

vs Joshua Van · Mar 25

SUBvs Luis Gurule · May 26

latest

Kevin Borjas

oldest →

KOvs Alessandro Costa · May 24

vs Ronaldo Rodriguez · Mar 25

vs Sumudaerji · Aug 25

KOvs Imanol Rodriguez · Feb 26

DECvs Andre Lima · Jun 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Rei TsuruyaMetricKevin Borjas

2.24

Strikes / min

3.96

2.01

Strikes absorbed / min

5.64

42%

Strike defense

49%

5.06

TDs / 15 min

0.00

50%

Takedown defense

70%

1.90

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.23Δ 1.91 — meaningful gap-1.68

Not enough statistical data to render a radar chart for this matchup.

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Rei Tsuruya(3 fights)Kevin Borjas(6 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +31.7|Blue -31.7

Recent Form

Red +0.6|Blue -0.6

Striker Score

Red -0.0|Blue +0.0

EVEN

Grappler Score

Red -14.2|Blue +14.2

Layoff

Red +21.0|Blue -21.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Rei TsuruyaTargetKevin Borjas

By target zone

58% acc · 100%

Head

Body

Leg

By position

Distance

Clinch

58% acc · 100%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Rei Tsuruya rounds

even

Kevin Borjas rounds

Round 1Rei Tsuruya edged it

Sig. strikes39

Takedowns2

Control3:58

0Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

39 / 67

Sig Strikes

0 / 0

58%

Sig Str %

—

71 / 101

Total Strikes

1 / 3

2 / 4

TDs

0 / 0

50%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

3:58

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Kevin Borjas	0 / 0	1 / 3	0 / 0	0
1	Rei Tsuruya	39 / 67	71 / 101	2 / 4	1

The Pick

Vegas favorite

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Odds

—

Market-implied probability

No market line yet

Model pick shown for research — not a betting edge.

No Vegas odds available yet.

No market line yet · model 61% (research) · vufc_v7_0_20260718_090638

🔒 Pick locked Jul 18, 2026, 9:29 AM UTC · never rewritten

Rei Tsuruya

StanceOrthodox

Height66.0"

Reach68.0"

Fights5

Kevin Borjas

StanceOrthodox

Height65.0"

Reach68.0"

Fights7