Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Demian Maia has 27pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
- Demian Maia has 61pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Stance matchup historically favors Demian Maia (53.5%).
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Demian MaiaL2 streak
oldest →L
vs Kamaru Usman · May 18W
SUBvs Lyman Good · Feb 19W
DECvs Rocco Martin · Jun 19L
KOvs Gilbert Burns · Mar 20L
vs Belal Muhammad · Jun 21 Ben Askren
oldest →W
SUBvs Robbie Lawler · Mar 19L
KOvs Jorge Masvidal · Jul 19 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Demian MaiaMetricBen Askren
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)-0.27Δ 1.75 — meaningful gap-2.02
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
Demian MaiaBen Askren
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Demian Maia(10 fights)Ben Askren(3 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red +25.1|Blue -25.1
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red +0.6|Blue -0.6
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red +1.0|Blue -1.0
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red +0.1|Blue -0.1
Layoff— Days since last fight (Red − Blue). Positive = Red has been away longer.
Red +7.0|Blue -7.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
Demian MaiaTargetBen Askren
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
Round 1Ben Askren edged it
Sig. strikes28
Takedowns0
Control0:00
27Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
0:46Control
Round 2Even round
Sig. strikes23
Takedowns0
Control0:38
22Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
0:35Control
Round 3Even round
Sig. strikes18
Takedowns0
Control0:51
14Sig. strikes
2Takedowns
0:33Control
Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.
