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Lightweight

3 Rounds

Esteban Ribovics won · S-DEC R3

Elo1476

Elo1501

Daniel ZellhubervsEsteban RibovicsUFC Prediction Result

UFC 306: Riyadh Season Noche UFC · Saturday, September 14, 2024Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Esteban Ribovics won

S-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupDaniel Zellhuber: Pressure fightervsEsteban Ribovics: Pressure fighter

Two pressure fighters — expect a fast pace and a war of attrition. Fitness decides it.

Model Prediction: Esteban Ribovics wins(64.3%)

Actual result: Esteban Ribovics wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Esteban Ribovics at +164 American odds

+$164 profit

$264 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Daniel Zellhuber has 15pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Daniel Zellhuber (52.9%).
Daniel Zellhuber has a 20cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Daniel Zellhuber

Red Corner

Esteban Ribovics

Blue Corner

-198

(66%)

Vegas Odds

+164

(38%)

1476

Elo

1501

Age

Switch

Stance

Orthodox

6'1"

Height

5'10"

195.58 cm

Reach

175.26 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Daniel ZellhuberL2 streak

oldest →

vs Lando Vannata · Apr 23

SUBvs Christos Giagos · Sep 23

vs Francisco Prado · Feb 24

vs Michael Johnson · Jul 25

KOvs King Green · Feb 26

latest

Esteban Ribovics

oldest →

vs Kamuela Kirk · Jul 23

KOvs Terrance McKinney · May 24

vs Nasrat Haqparast · Mar 25

vs Elves Brener · Aug 25

SUBvs Mateusz Gamrot · Apr 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Daniel ZellhuberMetricEsteban Ribovics

5.45

Strikes / min

7.27

6.17

Strikes absorbed / min

5.83

54%

Strike defense

54%

0.14

TDs / 15 min

0.35

81%

Takedown defense

66%

0.30

Sub atts / 15 min

0.20

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.72Δ 2.16 — meaningful gap+1.44

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Daniel ZellhuberEsteban Ribovics

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Daniel Zellhuber(7 fights)Esteban Ribovics(7 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -24.9|Blue +24.9

Recent Form

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Striker Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Grappler Score

Red -0.2|Blue +0.2

Layoff

Red +77.0|Blue -77.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Daniel ZellhuberTargetEsteban Ribovics

By target zone

33% acc · 69%

Head

103

37% acc · 66%

69% acc · 27%

Body

67% acc · 21%

100% acc · 4%

Leg

100% acc · 13%

By position

117

38% acc · 97%

Distance

154

45% acc · 99%

100% acc · 3%

Clinch

67% acc · 1%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Daniel Zellhuber rounds

even

Esteban Ribovics rounds

Round 1Daniel Zellhuber edged it

Sig. strikes27

Takedowns0

Control0:00

24Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Daniel Zellhuber edged it

Sig. strikes51

Takedowns0

Control0:00

40Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Esteban Ribovics edged it

Sig. strikes43

Takedowns0

Control0:15

Knockdowns1

92Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

0Knockdowns

Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

121 / 308

Sig Strikes

156 / 345

38.3%

Sig Str %

42.7%

121 / 308

Total Strikes

156 / 345

0 / 1

TDs

0 / 0

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:15

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Esteban Ribovics	24 / 65	24 / 65	0 / 0
1	Daniel Zellhuber	27 / 76	27 / 76	0 / 0
2	Esteban Ribovics	40 / 89	40 / 89	0 / 0
2	Daniel Zellhuber	51 / 116	51 / 116	0 / 0
3	Esteban Ribovics	92 / 191	92 / 191	0 / 0
3	Daniel Zellhuber	43 / 116	43 / 116	0 / 1

Daniel Zellhuber

StanceSwitch

Height73.0"

Reach77.0"

Fights7

Esteban Ribovics

StanceOrthodox

Height70.0"

Reach69.0"

Fights6