Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- BJ Penn enters on a 5-fight losing streak.
- Nick Diaz enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
- Stance matchup historically favors Nick Diaz (53.5%).
- Nick Diaz has a 15cm reach advantage.
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
BJ PennL5 streak
oldest →L
KOvs Frankie Edgar · Jul 14L
KOvs Yair Rodriguez · Jan 17L
vs Dennis Siver · Jun 17L
SUBvs Ryan Hall · Dec 18 Nick DiazL3 streak
oldest →L
vs Carlos Condit · Feb 12L
vs Georges St-Pierre · Mar 13L
KOvs Robbie Lawler · Sep 21 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
BJ PennMetricNick Diaz
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)-0.44Δ 2.31 — meaningful gap+1.87
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
BJ PennNick Diaz
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
BJ Penn(10 fights)Nick Diaz(4 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red -35.5|Blue +35.5
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red -0.1|Blue +0.1
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red -47.4|Blue +47.4
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red -49.6|Blue +49.6
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
Round 1BJ Penn edged it
Sig. strikes33
Takedowns1
Control1:24
20Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
1:06Control
Round 2Nick Diaz edged it
Sig. strikes19
Takedowns0
Control0:00
83Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
1:45Control
Round 3Nick Diaz edged it
Sig. strikes36
Takedowns0
Control0:01
75Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:32Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.
