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Women's Flyweight

3 Rounds

Luana Santos won · SUB R1

Elo1550

Elo1491

Luana SantosvsMariya AgapovaUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Namajunas vs. Cortez · Saturday, July 13, 2024Denver, Colorado, USA

Official fight result

Luana Santos won

SUB · Round 1 · 3:27

Style matchupLuana Santos: WrestlervsMariya Agapova: Pressure fighter

The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.

Model Prediction: Luana Santos wins(75.1%)

Actual result: Luana Santos wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Luana Santos at -425 American odds

+$24 profit

$124 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Luana Santos enters on a 3-fight win streak.
Luana Santos has 11pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Luana Santos has 40pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Mariya Agapova (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Luana Santos

Red Corner

Mariya Agapova

Blue Corner

-425

(81%)

Vegas Odds

+300

(25%)

1550

Elo

1491

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

5'6"

Height

5'6"

170.18 cm

Reach

172.72 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Luana SantosW3 streak

oldest →

vs Stephanie Egger · Dec 23

vs Casey O'Neill · Aug 24

SUBvs Tainara Lisboa · May 25

vs Melissa Croden · Dec 25

DECvs Karol Rosa · Jun 26

latest

Mariya AgapovaL2 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Hannah Cifers · Jun 20

KOvs Shana Dobson · Aug 20

SUBvs Sabina Mazo · Oct 21

SUBvs Maryna Moroz · Mar 22

SUBvs Gillian Robertson · Sep 22

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Luana SantosMetricMariya Agapova

2.99

Strikes / min

4.43

2.93

Strikes absorbed / min

3.62

63%

Strike defense

52%

2.17

TDs / 15 min

0.55

85%

Takedown defense

45%

1.20

Sub atts / 15 min

0.80

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.06evenly matched on net striking+0.81

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Luana SantosMariya Agapova

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Luana Santos(7 fights)Mariya Agapova(6 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +59.4|Blue -59.4

Recent Form

Red +1.5|Blue -1.5

Striker Score

Red +0.0|Blue -0.0

EVEN

Grappler Score

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Layoff

Red -448.0|Blue +448.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Luana SantosTargetMariya Agapova

By target zone

50% acc · 100%

Head

20% acc · 33%

Body

0% acc

Leg

29% acc · 67%

By position

50% acc · 100%

Distance

21% acc · 100%

Clinch

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Luana Santos rounds

even

Mariya Agapova rounds

Round 1Luana Santos edged it

Sig. strikes2

Takedowns1

Control2:23

3Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

2 / 4

Sig Strikes

3 / 14

50%

Sig Str %

21%

9 / 12

Total Strikes

20 / 31

1 / 1

TDs

0 / 0

100%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

2:23

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Mariya Agapova	3 / 14	20 / 31	0 / 0	0
1	Luana Santos	2 / 4	9 / 12	1 / 1	3

Luana Santos

StanceOrthodox

Height66.0"

Reach67.0"

Fights7

Mariya Agapova

StanceSouthpaw

Height66.0"

Reach68.0"

Fights6