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Lightweight

3 Rounds

Matt Frevola won · KO/TKO R1

Elo1514

Elo1483

Drew DobervsMatt FrevolaUFC Prediction Result

UFC 288: Sterling vs. Cejudo · Saturday, May 6, 2023Newark, New Jersey, USA

Official fight result

Matt Frevola won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 4:08

Style matchupDrew Dober: Pressure fightervsMatt Frevola: Wrestler

The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.

Model Prediction: Matt Frevola wins(68.4%)

Actual result: Matt Frevola wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Matt Frevola at +188 American odds

+$188 profit

$288 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Matt Frevola enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Drew Dober is a KO finisher (73% of wins). Matt Frevola has lost 80% of fights by KO.
Drew Dober has 18pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Drew Dober (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Drew Dober

Red Corner

Matt Frevola

Blue Corner

-225

(69%)

Vegas Odds

+188

(35%)

1514

Elo

1483

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

5'8"

Height

5'9"

177.8 cm

Reach

180.34 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Drew DoberW2 streak

oldest →

vs Renato Moicano · Feb 24

KOvs Jean Silva · Jul 24

KOvs Manuel Torres · Mar 25

KOvs Kyle Prepolec · Oct 25

KOvs Michael Johnson · Mar 26

latest

Matt FrevolaL3 streak

oldest →

KOvs Genaro Valdez · Jan 22

KOvs Ottman Azaitar · Nov 22

KOvs Benoit Saint Denis · Nov 23

KOvs Fares Ziam · Sep 24

vs Kyle Nelson · Oct 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Drew DoberMetricMatt Frevola

4.48

Strikes / min

3.30

4.33

Strikes absorbed / min

3.76

53%

Strike defense

56%

0.61

TDs / 15 min

2.34

58%

Takedown defense

40%

0.10

Sub atts / 15 min

0.80

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.15evenly matched on net striking-0.46

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Drew DoberMatt Frevola

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Drew Dober(10 fights)Matt Frevola(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +30.6|Blue -30.6

Recent Form

Red -0.0|Blue +0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red +0.7|Blue -0.7

Grappler Score

Red -0.4|Blue +0.4

Layoff

Red -35.0|Blue +35.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Drew DoberTargetMatt Frevola

By target zone

24% acc · 60%

Head

43% acc · 74%

89% acc · 40%

Body

55% acc · 17%

Leg

100% acc · 9%

By position

33% acc · 95%

Distance

38% acc · 63%

100% acc · 5%

Clinch

50% acc · 3%

Ground

80% acc · 34%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Drew Dober rounds

even

Matt Frevola rounds

Round 1Matt Frevola edged it

Sig. strikes20

Takedowns0

Control0:00

Knockdowns0

35Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:08Control

1Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

20 / 59

Sig Strikes

35 / 75

33%

Sig Str %

46%

20 / 59

Total Strikes

39 / 79

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 1

—

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

0:00

Ctrl Time

0:08

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Matt Frevola	35 / 75	39 / 79	0 / 1	0
1	Drew Dober	20 / 59	20 / 59	0 / 0	0

Drew Dober

StanceSouthpaw

Height68.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights26

Matt Frevola

StanceOrthodox

Height69.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights10