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Middleweight

3 Rounds

Tresean Gore won · Submission R3

Elo1487

Elo1506

Azamat BekoevvsTresean GoreUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Duncan · Saturday, April 4, 2026Las Vegas, USA

Official fight result

Tresean Gore won

Submission · Round 3 · 3:27

Engine 7.0 was correct

Pre-fight pick: Tresean Gore

If $100 had been placed on our pre-fight pick

Tresean Gore at +450 American odds · hypothetical only

+$450 profit

$550 total returned

Style matchupAzamat Bekoev: WrestlervsTresean Gore: Submission grappler

Wrestler wants to control on top; grappler wants to threaten subs from bottom. Cage position is critical.

Model Prediction: Azamat Bekoev wins(73.0%)

Actual result: Tresean Gore wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Azamat Bekoev is a KO finisher (100% of wins). Tresean Gore has lost 50% of fights by KO.
Tresean Gore threatens submissions; Azamat Bekoev has lost 50% of fights by sub.
Tresean Gore has 21pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Tresean Gore (52.9%).

Tale of the Tape

Azamat Bekoev

Red Corner

Tresean Gore

Blue Corner

-699

(87%)

Vegas Odds

+450

(18%)

1487

Elo

1506

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Switch

6'0"

Height

6'0"

182.88 cm

Reach

190.5 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Azamat Bekoev

oldest →

KOvs Zach Reese · Jan 25

KOvs Ryan Loder · May 25

KOvs Yousri Belgaroui · Oct 25

latest

Tresean GoreL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Cody Brundage · Jul 22

SUBvs Josh Fremd · Oct 22

SUBvs Antonio Trocoli · Nov 24

KOvs Marco Tulio · Apr 25

vs Rodolfo Vieira · Aug 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Azamat BekoevMetricTresean Gore

4.57

Strikes / min

3.41

6.83

Strikes absorbed / min

7.00

31%

Strike defense

40%

3.48

TDs / 15 min

1.91

62%

Takedown defense

83%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

1.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-2.26Δ 1.33 — meaningful gap-3.59

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Azamat BekoevTresean Gore

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Azamat Bekoev(4 fights)Tresean Gore(7 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -18.8|Blue +18.8

Recent Form

Red +0.6|Blue -0.6

Striker Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Grappler Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Layoff

Red -77.0|Blue +77.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Azamat BekoevTargetTresean Gore

By target zone

57% acc · 47%

Head

60% acc · 65%

60% acc · 43%

Body

100% acc · 10%

Leg

95% acc · 24%

By position

54% acc · 70%

Distance

67% acc · 79%

92% acc · 16%

Clinch

64% acc · 12%

83% acc · 14%

Ground

100% acc · 9%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Azamat Bekoev rounds

even

Tresean Gore rounds

Round 1Even round

Sig. strikes35

Takedowns0

Control0:19

33Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:36Control

Round 2Azamat Bekoev edged it

Sig. strikes30

Takedowns2

Control1:38

Knockdowns1

25Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:38Control

0Knockdowns

Round 3Tresean Gore edged it

Sig. strikes5

Takedowns0

Control0:00

20Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:55Control

Fight Stats

Totals

70 / 115

Sig Strikes

78 / 113

61.3%

Sig Str %

69%

128 / 175

Total Strikes

98 / 136

2 / 5

TDs

2 / 3

22%

TD %

66.7%

Sub Att

Rev

1:57

Ctrl Time

4:09

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Tresean Gore	33 / 46	34 / 48	0 / 1	0
1	Azamat Bekoev	35 / 61	46 / 73	0 / 1	0
2	Tresean Gore	25 / 40	40 / 57	1 / 1	0
2	Azamat Bekoev	30 / 46	54 / 71	2 / 3	0
3	Tresean Gore	20 / 27	24 / 31	1 / 1	1
3	Azamat Bekoev	5 / 8	28 / 31	0 / 1	0

The Pick

Vegas favorite

Azamat Bekoev

Odds

-699

Market-implied probability

Tresean Gore 17%

Model pick shown for research — not a betting edge.

$100 bet returns

Azamat Bekoev$114

Tresean Gore (model pick · research)$550

17% market-implied · model 49% (research) · vufc_v4_pure_sklearn_histgb_20260517_110941

🔒 Pick locked May 17, 2026, 11:10 AM UTC · never rewritten

Azamat Bekoev

StanceOrthodox

Height72.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights4

Tresean Gore

StanceSwitch

Height72.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights8