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Bantamweight
3 Rounds
Ricky Simon won · SUB
Elo1500
Ricky Simon
Elo1409

Ricky SimonvsGaetano PirrelloUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Chiesa vs. Magny · Wednesday, January 20, 2021Abu Dhabi, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates

Official fight result

Ricky Simon won

SUB

Model Prediction: Ricky Simon wins(86.3%)

Actual result: Ricky Simon wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Ricky Simon at -400 American odds

+$25 profit

$125 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Ricky Simon has 19pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
  • Ricky Simon has 46pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
  • Ricky Simon has a 10cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Ricky Simon
Red Corner
VS
Gaetano Pirrello
Blue Corner
-400
(80%)
Vegas Odds
+300
(25%)
1500
Elo
1409
33
Age
34
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'6"
Height
5'7"
175.26 cm
Reach
165.1 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Ricky Simon
oldest →
L
vs Vinicius Oliveira · Jun 24
W
KOvs Javid Basharat · Feb 25
W
vs Cameron Smotherman · Jun 25
L
vs Raoni Barcelos · Nov 25
D
vs Adrian Yanez · Mar 26
latest
Gaetano Pirrello
oldest →
L
KOvs Douglas Silva de Andrade · Oct 21
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Ricky SimonMetricGaetano Pirrello
3.03
Strikes / min
0.99
3.90
Strikes absorbed / min
2.44
61%
Strike defense
42%
4.49
TDs / 15 min
0.00
76%
Takedown defense
30%
0.30
Sub atts / 15 min
0.00
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.87evenly matched on net striking-1.45

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1536 vs 1500Strikes3.2 vs 0.0Takedowns6.6 vs 0.0Sub Atts0.20 vs 0.00Form0.2 vs 0.0
Ricky SimonGaetano Pirrello

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14801493150515181530← oldermost recent →
Ricky Simon(10 fights)Gaetano Pirrello(2 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red +91.8|Blue -91.8
Recent Form
Red +0.2|Blue -0.2
Striker Score
Red -49.2|Blue +49.2
Grappler Score
Red -49.3|Blue +49.3
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Ricky SimonTargetGaetano Pirrello

By target zone

14
50% acc · 82%
Head
4
36% acc · 67%
3
75% acc · 18%
Body
0
0
Leg
2
67% acc · 33%

By position

3
23% acc · 18%
Distance
5
42% acc · 83%
4
67% acc · 24%
Clinch
1
50% acc · 17%
10
77% acc · 59%
Ground
0

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

2
Ricky Simon rounds
0
even
0
Gaetano Pirrello rounds
Round 1Ricky Simon edged it
Sig. strikes11
Takedowns3
Control3:33
2Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 2Ricky Simon edged it
Sig. strikes6
Takedowns4
Control3:26
4Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
0
17 / 32
Sig Strikes
6 / 14
53%
Sig Str %
41.5%
50 / 69
Total Strikes
10 / 18
7 / 10
TDs
0 / 0
70.5%
TD %
—
1
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
6:59
Ctrl Time
0:00

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Gaetano Pirrello2 / 63 / 70 / 00
1Ricky Simon11 / 2127 / 403 / 40
2Gaetano Pirrello4 / 87 / 110 / 00
2Ricky Simon6 / 1123 / 294 / 61

Ricky Simon

StanceOrthodox
Height66.0"
Reach69.0"
Fights17

Gaetano Pirrello

StanceOrthodox
Height67.0"
Reach65.0"
Fights2