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Lightweight
3 Rounds
Chris Padilla won · S-DEC R3
Elo1512
Jai Herbert
Elo1548

Jai HerbertvsChris PadillaUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Edwards vs. Brady · Saturday, March 22, 2025London, England, United Kingdom

Official fight result

Chris Padilla won

S-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupJai Herbert: StrikervsChris Padilla: Pressure fighter

The pressure fighter will force exchanges. The cleaner striker needs lateral movement.

Model Prediction: Chris Padilla wins(77.6%)

Actual result: Chris Padilla wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Chris Padilla at +110 American odds

+$110 profit

$210 total returned

Tale of the Tape

Jai Herbert
Red Corner
VS
Chris Padilla
Blue Corner
-130
(57%)
Vegas Odds
+110
(48%)
1512
Elo
1548
38
Age
30
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
6'1"
Height
5'9"
195.58 cm
Reach
187.96 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Jai HerbertW2 streak
oldest →
L
KOvs Ilia Topuria · Mar 22
W
vs Kyle Nelson · Jul 22
L
vs Fares Ziam · Jul 23
W
vs Rolando Bedoya · Aug 24
W
KOvs Mandel Nallo · Apr 26
latest
Chris Padilla
oldest →
W
SUBvs James Llontop · Apr 24
W
KOvs Rongzhu · Sep 24
W
KOvs Ismael Bonfim · Nov 25
D
DECvs MarQuel Mederos · Apr 26
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Jai HerbertMetricChris Padilla
3.19
Strikes / min
6.19
3.34
Strikes absorbed / min
4.88
52%
Strike defense
49%
0.42
TDs / 15 min
1.13
66%
Takedown defense
80%
0.00
Sub atts / 15 min
0.30
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.15Δ 1.46 — meaningful gap+1.31

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1495 vs 1535Strikes3.1 vs 4.8Takedowns0.4 vs 1.2Sub Atts0.00 vs 0.40Form0.4 vs 1.0
Jai HerbertChris Padilla

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14801500152015401560← oldermost recent →
Jai Herbert(9 fights)Chris Padilla(5 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red -36.7|Blue +36.7
Recent Form
Red -0.5|Blue +0.5
Striker Score
Red -0.3|Blue +0.3
Grappler Score
Red -0.7|Blue +0.7
Layoff
Red +35.0|Blue -35.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Jai HerbertTargetChris Padilla

By target zone

19
21% acc · 50%
Head
20
33% acc · 51%
10
53% acc · 26%
Body
6
67% acc · 15%
9
82% acc · 24%
Leg
13
45% acc · 33%

By position

37
31% acc · 97%
Distance
35
37% acc · 90%
1
50% acc · 3%
Clinch
4
100% acc · 10%
0
Ground
0

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

1
Jai Herbert rounds
0
even
2
Chris Padilla rounds
Round 1Chris Padilla edged it
Sig. strikes3
Takedowns0
Control0:00
9Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:51Control
Round 2Chris Padilla edged it
Sig. strikes7
Takedowns0
Control0:01
13Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
1:34Control
Round 3Jai Herbert edged it
Sig. strikes28
Takedowns0
Control0:00
17Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
1:16Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
0
38 / 122
Sig Strikes
39 / 98
25.7%
Sig Str %
39%
59 / 143
Total Strikes
88 / 147
0 / 1
TDs
0 / 6
0%
TD %
0%
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
0:01
Ctrl Time
3:41

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Chris Padilla9 / 2429 / 440 / 10
1Jai Herbert3 / 1617 / 300 / 00
2Chris Padilla13 / 3232 / 510 / 30
2Jai Herbert7 / 4212 / 470 / 10
3Chris Padilla17 / 4227 / 520 / 20
3Jai Herbert28 / 6430 / 660 / 00

Jai Herbert

StanceOrthodox
Height73.0"
Reach77.0"
Fights8

Chris Padilla

StanceOrthodox
Height69.0"
Reach74.0"
Fights4