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Bantamweight

3 Rounds

Thomas Almeida won · KO/TKO R2

Elo1360

Elo1398

Brad PickettvsThomas AlmeidaUFC Prediction Result

UFC 189: Mendes vs McGregor · Saturday, July 11, 2015Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Thomas Almeida won

KO/TKO · Round 2 · 0:29

Style matchupBrad Pickett: WrestlervsThomas Almeida: Pressure fighter

The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.

Model Prediction: Thomas Almeida wins(70.8%)

Actual result: Thomas Almeida wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Thomas Almeida at -700 American odds

+$14 profit

$114 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Brad Pickett enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Thomas Almeida enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
Thomas Almeida has 17pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Thomas Almeida (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Brad Pickett

Red Corner

Thomas Almeida

Blue Corner

+500

(17%)

Vegas Odds

-700

(88%)

1360

Elo

1398

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

5'6"

Height

5'7"

172.72 cm

Reach

177.8 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Brad PickettL3 streak

oldest →

vs Chico Camus · Nov 14

vs Francisco Rivera · Feb 16

SUBvs Iuri Alcantara · Oct 16

vs Urijah Faber · Dec 16

KOvs Marlon Vera · Mar 17

latest

Thomas AlmeidaL4 streak

oldest →

KOvs Albert Morales · Nov 16

vs Jimmie Rivera · Jul 17

KOvs Rob Font · Jan 18

vs Jonathan Martinez · Oct 20

KOvs Sean O'Malley · Mar 21

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Brad PickettMetricThomas Almeida

3.02

Strikes / min

4.84

4.63

Strikes absorbed / min

4.93

55%

Strike defense

61%

2.47

TDs / 15 min

0.17

58%

Takedown defense

75%

0.40

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-1.61Δ 1.52 — meaningful gap-0.09

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Brad PickettThomas Almeida

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Brad Pickett(10 fights)Thomas Almeida(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -38.1|Blue +38.1

Recent Form

Red -1.5|Blue +1.5

Striker Score

Red -2.1|Blue +2.1

Grappler Score

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Layoff

Red +154.0|Blue -154.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Brad PickettTargetThomas Almeida

By target zone

35% acc · 85%

Head

38% acc · 71%

50% acc · 5%

Body

57% acc · 17%

40% acc · 10%

Leg

100% acc · 13%

By position

32% acc · 80%

Distance

43% acc · 96%

100% acc · 15%

Clinch

100% acc · 4%

50% acc · 5%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Brad Pickett rounds

even

Thomas Almeida rounds

Round 1Brad Pickett edged it

Sig. strikes20

Takedowns0

Control0:28

Knockdowns1

22Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

0Knockdowns

Round 2Thomas Almeida edged it

Sig. strikes0

Takedowns0

Control0:00

Knockdowns0

2Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:01Control

1Knockdowns

Fight Stats

Totals

20 / 55

Sig Strikes

24 / 55

19.5%

Sig Str %

54%

20 / 55

Total Strikes

24 / 55

0 / 1

TDs

0 / 0

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:28

Ctrl Time

0:01

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Thomas Almeida	22 / 52	22 / 52	0 / 0
1	Brad Pickett	20 / 51	20 / 51	0 / 1
2	Thomas Almeida	2 / 3	2 / 3	0 / 0
2	Brad Pickett	0 / 4	0 / 4	0 / 0

Brad Pickett

StanceOrthodox

Height66.0"

Reach68.0"

Fights14

Thomas Almeida

StanceSouthpaw

Height67.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights10