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Lightweight
3 Rounds
Jordan Leavitt won · KO/TKO
Elo1392
Matt Wiman
Elo1506
Jordan Leavitt

Matt WimanvsJordan LeavittUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs. Vettori · Saturday, December 5, 2020Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Jordan Leavitt won

KO/TKO

Style matchupMatt Wiman: WrestlervsJordan Leavitt: Wrestler

Wrestler-vs-wrestler scrambles. Whoever lands the first takedown often controls the round.

Model Prediction: Jordan Leavitt wins(55.8%)

Actual result: Jordan Leavitt wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Jordan Leavitt at -420 American odds

+$24 profit

$124 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Matt Wiman threatens submissions; Jordan Leavitt has lost 75% of fights by sub.
  • Matt Wiman has 26pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
  • Stance matchup historically favors Jordan Leavitt (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Matt Wiman
Red Corner
VS
Jordan Leavitt
Blue Corner
+310
(24%)
Vegas Odds
-420
(81%)
1392
Elo
1506
42
Age
31
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
5'10"
Height
5'9"
172.72 cm
Reach
180.34 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Matt WimanL2 streak
oldest →
W
SUBvs Paul Sass · Sep 12
L
KOvs TJ Grant · Jan 13
W
vs Isaac Vallie-Flagg · Nov 14
L
KOvs Luis Pena · Jun 19
L
vs Joe Solecki · Dec 19
latest
Jordan Leavitt
oldest →
W
KOvs Victor Martinez · Feb 23
L
SUBvs Chase Hooper · Nov 23
W
SUBvs Kurt Holobaugh · May 25
W
vs Yadier del Valle · Feb 26
L
SUBvs Joanderson Brito · Jun 26
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Matt WimanMetricJordan Leavitt
3.17
Strikes / min
2.21
3.57
Strikes absorbed / min
1.59
51%
Strike defense
58%
2.13
TDs / 15 min
3.15
56%
Takedown defense
30%
1.50
Sub atts / 15 min
1.10
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.40Δ 1.02 — meaningful gap+0.62

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1511 vs 1500Strikes3.2 vs 0.9Takedowns2.1 vs 3.5Sub Atts1.50 vs 3.50Form-1.0 vs 0.0
Matt WimanJordan Leavitt

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14801495151015251540← oldermost recent →
Matt Wiman(10 fights)Jordan Leavitt(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red -113.5|Blue +113.5
Recent Form
Red -1.0|Blue +1.0
Striker Score
Red -48.3|Blue +48.3
Grappler Score
Red -49.4|Blue +49.4
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Matt WimanTargetJordan Leavitt

By target zone

0
0% acc
Head
0
0
Body
1
100% acc · 100%
0
0% acc
Leg
0

By position

0
0% acc
Distance
1
100% acc · 100%
0
Clinch
0
0
Ground
0

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

0
Matt Wiman rounds
0
even
1
Jordan Leavitt rounds
Round 1Jordan Leavitt edged it
Sig. strikes0
Takedowns0
Control0:00
1Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
0:00Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
0
0 / 2
Sig Strikes
1 / 1
0%
Sig Str %
100%
0 / 2
Total Strikes
1 / 1
0 / 0
TDs
1 / 2
—
TD %
50%
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
0:00
Ctrl Time
0:00

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Jordan Leavitt1 / 11 / 11 / 20
1Matt Wiman0 / 20 / 20 / 00

Matt Wiman

StanceOrthodox
Height70.0"
Reach68.0"
Fights10

Jordan Leavitt

StanceSouthpaw
Height69.0"
Reach71.0"
Fights10