Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Michael Chandler enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
- Michael Chandler has 17pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Michael ChandlerL3 streak
oldest →L
vs Justin Gaethje · Nov 21W
KOvs Tony Ferguson · May 22L
SUBvs Dustin Poirier · Nov 22L
vs Charles Oliveira · Nov 24L
KOvs Mauricio Ruffy · Jun 26 Paddy Pimblett
oldest →W
vs Jared Gordon · Dec 22W
vs Tony Ferguson · Dec 23W
SUBvs King Green · Jul 24L
vs Justin Gaethje · Jan 26W
SUBvs Benoit Saint Denis · Jul 26 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Michael ChandlerMetricPaddy Pimblett
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)-0.48Δ 2.08 — meaningful gap+1.60
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
Michael ChandlerPaddy Pimblett
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Michael Chandler(8 fights)Paddy Pimblett(9 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red -87.4|Blue +87.4
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red -1.8|Blue +1.8
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red -0.1|Blue +0.1
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red +0.0|Blue -0.0
Layoff— Days since last fight (Red − Blue). Positive = Red has been away longer.
Red -112.0|Blue +112.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
Michael ChandlerTargetPaddy Pimblett
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
Round 1Even round
Sig. strikes5
Takedowns2
Control2:10
16Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 2Paddy Pimblett edged it
Sig. strikes5
Takedowns2
Control0:34
34Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
2:15Control
Round 3Paddy Pimblett edged it
Sig. strikes1
Takedowns0
Control0:00
30Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
2:26Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.
