Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Vinicius Oliveira enters on a 5-fight win streak.
- Vinicius Oliveira has 15pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Mario Bautista
oldest →L
vs Umar Nurmagomedov · Oct 25W
DECvs Cory Sandhagen · Jul 26 Vinicius OliveiraW5 streak
oldest →W
KOvs Benardo Sopaj · Mar 24W
vs Said Nurmagomedov · Feb 25W
vs Kyler Phillips · Jul 25W
KOvs Andre Fili · Jun 26 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Mario BautistaMetricVinicius Oliveira
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)+1.32evenly matched on net striking+2.03
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
Mario BautistaVinicius Oliveira
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Mario Bautista(10 fights)Vinicius Oliveira(6 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red +15.7|Blue -15.7
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red -0.8|Blue +0.8
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red +0.0|Blue -0.0
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red +0.1|Blue -0.1
Layoff— Days since last fight (Red − Blue). Positive = Red has been away longer.
Red -98.0|Blue +98.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
Mario BautistaTargetVinicius Oliveira
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
0
Vinicius Oliveira rounds
Round 1Even round
Sig. strikes3
Takedowns1
Control2:18
6Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
1:39Control
Round 2Mario Bautista edged it
Sig. strikes12
Takedowns4
Control3:29
6Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.
