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Heavyweight

3 Rounds

Tallison Teixeira won · KO/TKO R1

Elo1495

Elo1490

Justin TafavsTallison TeixeiraUFC Prediction Result

UFC 312: Du Plessis vs. Strickland 2 · Saturday, February 8, 2025Sydney, New South Wales, Australia

Official fight result

Tallison Teixeira won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 0:35

Style matchupJustin Tafa: Pressure fightervsTallison Teixeira: Wrestler

The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.

Model Prediction: Tallison Teixeira wins(84.4%)

Actual result: Tallison Teixeira wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Tallison Teixeira at -156 American odds

+$64 profit

$164 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Justin Tafa is a KO finisher (100% of wins). Tallison Teixeira has lost 100% of fights by KO.
Justin Tafa has 53pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Justin Tafa (53.5%).
Tallison Teixeira has a 23cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Justin Tafa

Red Corner

Tallison Teixeira

Blue Corner

+132

(43%)

Vegas Odds

-156

(61%)

1495

Elo

1490

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

6'0"

Height

6'7"

187.96 cm

Reach

210.82 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Justin Tafa

oldest →

vs Jared Vanderaa · May 21

KOvs Harry Hunsucker · Dec 21

KOvs Parker Porter · Feb 23

KOvs Austen Lane · Sep 23

vs Karl Williams · Mar 24

latest

Tallison Teixeira

oldest →

KOvs Derrick Lewis · Jul 25

vs Tai Tuivasa · Jan 26

KOvs Sergei Pavlovich · May 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Justin TafaMetricTallison Teixeira

4.05

Strikes / min

5.02

5.11

Strikes absorbed / min

3.86

47%

Strike defense

42%

0.00

TDs / 15 min

2.48

53%

Takedown defense

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-1.06Δ 2.22 — meaningful gap+1.16

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Justin TafaTallison Teixeira

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Justin Tafa(9 fights)Tallison Teixeira(4 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +4.4|Blue -4.4

Recent Form

Red -0.0|Blue +0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red -49.5|Blue +49.5

Grappler Score

Red -50.0|Blue +50.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Justin TafaTargetTallison Teixeira

By target zone

0% acc

Head

83% acc · 63%

Body

100% acc · 38%

Leg

By position

0% acc

Distance

50% acc · 13%

Clinch

100% acc · 38%

Ground

100% acc · 50%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Justin Tafa rounds

even

Tallison Teixeira rounds

Round 1Tallison Teixeira edged it

Sig. strikes0

Takedowns0

Control0:00

Knockdowns0

8Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:11Control

1Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0 / 1

Sig Strikes

8 / 9

Sig Str %

88%

0 / 1

Total Strikes

9 / 10

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 1

—

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

0:00

Ctrl Time

0:11

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Tallison Teixeira	8 / 9	9 / 10	0 / 1	0
1	Justin Tafa	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	0

Justin Tafa

StanceSouthpaw

Height72.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights9

Tallison Teixeira

StanceOrthodox

Height79.0"

Reach83.0"

Fights4