Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Thiago Tavares has 13pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
- Stance matchup historically favors Brian Ortega (52.9%).
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Thiago Tavares
oldest →L
KOvs Khabib Nurmagomedov · Jan 13W
SUBvs Justin Salas · Nov 13W
SUBvs Robert Peralta · Aug 14W
SUBvs Clay Guida · Nov 15L
KOvs Dooho Choi · Jul 16 Brian OrtegaL2 streak
oldest →L
vs Alexander Volkanovski · Sep 21L
KOvs Yair Rodriguez · Jul 22W
SUBvs Yair Rodriguez · Feb 24L
vs Aljamain Sterling · Aug 25 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Thiago TavaresMetricBrian Ortega
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)-0.31Δ 2.23 — meaningful gap-2.54
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
Thiago TavaresBrian Ortega
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Thiago Tavares(10 fights)Brian Ortega(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red +1.8|Blue -1.8
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red +0.8|Blue -0.8
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red -48.6|Blue +48.6
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red -49.4|Blue +49.4
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
Thiago TavaresTargetBrian Ortega
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
Round 1Thiago Tavares edged it
Sig. strikes10
Takedowns3
Control3:07
5Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:40Control
Round 2Thiago Tavares edged it
Sig. strikes9
Takedowns3
Control4:29
5Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:02Control
Round 3Brian Ortega edged it
Sig. strikes20
Takedowns0
Control0:46
Knockdowns0
31Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:12Control
1Knockdowns
Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.
