Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Stance matchup historically favors Robbie Lawler (53.5%).
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Colby CovingtonL2 streak
oldest →W
KOvs Tyron Woodley · Sep 20L
vs Kamaru Usman · Nov 21W
vs Jorge Masvidal · Mar 22L
vs Leon Edwards · Dec 23L
KOvs Joaquin Buckley · Dec 24 Robbie Lawler
oldest →L
SUBvs Ben Askren · Mar 19L
SUBvs Neil Magny · Aug 20L
KOvs Bryan Barberena · Jul 22W
KOvs Niko Price · Jul 23 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Colby CovingtonMetricRobbie Lawler
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)+0.72Δ 1.54 — meaningful gap-0.82
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
Colby CovingtonRobbie Lawler
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Colby Covington(10 fights)Robbie Lawler(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red -7.9|Blue +7.9
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red +1.7|Blue -1.7
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red -1.1|Blue +1.1
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red +0.3|Blue -0.3
Layoff— Days since last fight (Red − Blue). Positive = Red has been away longer.
Red +266.0|Blue -266.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
Colby CovingtonTargetRobbie Lawler
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
Round 1Colby Covington edged it
Sig. strikes13
Takedowns4
Control3:57
4Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 2Colby Covington edged it
Sig. strikes33
Takedowns3
Control2:18
6Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 3Colby Covington edged it
Sig. strikes41
Takedowns2
Control0:51
23Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 4Colby Covington edged it
Sig. strikes51
Takedowns1
Control1:27
22Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 5Colby Covington edged it
Sig. strikes41
Takedowns0
Control0:09
23Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.
