Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Sergei Pavlovich enters on a 3-fight win streak.
- Derrick Lewis is a KO finisher (80% of wins). Sergei Pavlovich has lost 67% of fights by KO.
- Sergei Pavlovich is a KO finisher (78% of wins). Derrick Lewis has lost 75% of fights by KO.
- Sergei Pavlovich has 16pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
- Sergei Pavlovich has 23pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Stance matchup historically favors Sergei Pavlovich (53.5%).
- Sergei Pavlovich has a 13cm reach advantage.
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Derrick LewisL2 streak
oldest →L
vs Jailton Almeida · Nov 23W
KOvs Rodrigo Nascimento · May 24W
KOvs Tallison Teixeira · Jul 25L
KOvs Waldo Cortes Acosta · Jan 26L
KOvs Josh Hokit · Jun 26 Sergei PavlovichW3 streak
oldest →L
KOvs Tom Aspinall · Nov 23L
vs Alexander Volkov · Jun 24W
vs Jairzinho Rozenstruik · Feb 25W
vs Waldo Cortes Acosta · Aug 25W
KOvs Tallison Teixeira · May 26 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Derrick LewisMetricSergei Pavlovich
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)-0.11evenly matched on net striking+0.81
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
Derrick LewisSergei Pavlovich
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Derrick Lewis(10 fights)Sergei Pavlovich(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red -56.9|Blue +56.9
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red -0.9|Blue +0.9
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red +0.6|Blue -0.6
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red +0.1|Blue -0.1
Layoff— Days since last fight (Red − Blue). Positive = Red has been away longer.
Red +35.0|Blue -35.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
Derrick LewisTargetSergei Pavlovich
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
Round 1Sergei Pavlovich edged it
Sig. strikes4
Takedowns0
Control0:00
Knockdowns0
15Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:02Control
1Knockdowns
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.
